Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Opposition ALP Recovers in Australia

July 05, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - After a sharp drop in early June, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has gained momentum again, according to a poll by Galaxy published in The Herald Sun. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next legislative election, up two points in a month.

The governing Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 41 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with nine per cent. Australia's preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 10-point lead over the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, prime minister John Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

On Jul. 2, Australian police arrested an unnamed Indian doctor in connection with a terror threat in Scotland. The man was working on a temporary basis under a visa known as the 457. Under the 457 visa program, skilled migrant workers are allowed temporary entry to Australia to take up specific jobs with sponsor employers who cannot fill the positions locally.

On Jul. 3, Howard warned Australians not to criticize the country's working visa program because of this incident, saying, "I think it's too early to say whether it says anything (about the visa program). The usual processes, I'm advised by the minister for immigration, occurred in relation to the 457 visa."

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next election to the House of Representatives?

Jul. 1

Jun. 3

May 13

Australian Labor Party

46%

44%

49%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

41%

42%

39%

Australian Greens

9%

10%

9%

Other parties

4%

4%

3%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Jul. 1

Jun. 3

May 13

Australian Labor Party

55%

53%

57%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

45%

47%

43%

Source: Galaxy / The Herald Sun
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Australian voters, conducted from Jun. 29 to Jul. 1, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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