November 07, 2005

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) - The outcome of the 2004 United States presidential election would change if a new ballot took place this year, according to a poll by CBS News. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for Democrat John Kerry, while 36 per cent would support Republican George W. Bush.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The outcome of the 2004 United States presidential election would change if a new ballot took place this year, according to a poll by CBS News. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for Democrat John Kerry, while 36 per cent would support Republican George W. Bush.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the U.S. Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia. As far as the popular vote is concerned, Bush garnered 51.03 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry getting 48.04 per cent.

The poll shows that three per cent of respondents who voted for Bush in November 2004 would now cast a ballot for the Democratic nominee. In a January interview with NBC's Tim Russert, Kerry expressed satisfaction with his campaign, saying, "I won the youth vote. I won the independent vote. I won the moderate vote. If you take half the people at an Ohio State football game on Saturday afternoon and they were to have voted the other way, you and I would be having a discussion today about my State of the Union speech."

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If last year's presidential election were being held today, how would you vote?

	All	Voted for Bush	Voted for Kerry
John Kerry (D)	41%	3%	81%
George W. Bush (R)	36%	84%	--
Someone else	13%	7%	13%
Would not vote	6%	3%	4%

Source: CBS News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 828 American adults, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.