October 30, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga is keeping his position as the favourite candidate to become Kenya’s next president, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 50 per cent of respondents would back the candidate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in this year’s ballot, down three points since early October.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga is keeping his position as the favourite candidate to become Kenya’s next president, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 50 per cent of respondents would back the candidate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in this year’s ballot, down three points since early October.

Incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the recently-created Party of National Unity (PNU) is second with 39 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) with eight per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the PNU and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Oct. 27, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) set the date for the legislative and presidential elections for Dec. 27. ECK chairman Samuel Kivuitu urged political leaders to reach agreements in order to reduce the number of parties in the ballot—after 147 different organizations were registered—saying, "The only difference between political parties is personalities, but if they are truly responsible leaders, they should reconcile and form alliances. (...) There are so many registered political parties that if they all field candidates, the ballot paper will be too complex for ordinary voters to comprehend."

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Oct. 23	Oct. 11	Sept. 2007
Raila Odinga (ODM)	50%	53%	47%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	39%	37%	38%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	8%	8%	8%

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,718 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23, 2007. No margin of error was provided.