November 07, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga could become the next president of Kenya, according to a review of three recent voting intention polls. In a survey by Strategic Research, 50 per cent of respondents would back Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in next month’s ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga could become the next president of Kenya, according to a review of three recent voting intention polls. In a survey by Strategic Research, 50 per cent of respondents would back Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in next month’s ballot.

Incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the recently-created Party of National Unity (PNU) is second with 35 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) with 14 per cent.

In a study by Consumer Insight, Odinga is first with 41 per cent, followed closely by Kibaki with 40.6 per cent, and Musyoka with 14.3 per cent.

A poll by Infotrak Harris also places Odinga in first place with 51.3 per cent, followed by Kibaki with 32.2 per cent, and Musyoka with 12.8 per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the PNU and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Nov. 4, Odinga accused Kibaki of manipulating the democratic process by appointing friends to the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) and hand-picking electoral observers, adding, "If Kibaki tries to rig this poll, he will face opposition he has never seen in his life."

The legislative and presidential ballots will take place on Dec. 27.

Polling Data

If elections were held today, who would you vote for?

	Strategic Research	Consumer Insight	InfoTrak Harris
Raila Odinga (ODM)	50%	41.0%	51.3%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	35%	40.6%	32.2%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	14%	14.3%	12.8%

Source: Strategic Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,400 Kenyan adults, conducted in late October 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Consumer Insight
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,050 Kenyan adults, conducted in late October 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Infotrak Harris
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,450 Kenyan adults, conducted in late October 2007. No margin of error was provided.