November 15, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga has lost some public support this month but is still the top contender in the race for Kenya’s presidency, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in next month’s ballot, down five points since late October.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga has lost some public support this month but is still the top contender in the race for Kenya’s presidency, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in next month’s ballot, down five points since late October.

Incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the recently-created Party of National Unity (PNU) is second with 41 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) with 11 per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the PNU and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Nov. 12, Odinga vowed to draft a new constitution that would give more power to regional governments. Following criticism from opponents who said Odinga intends to introduce "majimbo"—a confederate system of governance—the candidate said: "They are misleading Kenyans to start thinking that we want to balkanize the country. Ours is to take decision-making powers and resources to lower levels to bring about equitable distribution of resources."

The legislative and presidential ballots will take place on Dec. 27.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Nov. 7	Oct. 23	Oct. 11
Raila Odinga (ODM)	45%	50%	53%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	41%	39%	37%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	11%	8%	8%

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,712 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Nov. 3 to Nov. 7, 2007. No margin of error was provided.