(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Raila Odinga could become Kenya’s next president, according to a review of three voting intention polls. In a survey by Strategic Research, 47.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate in this year’s election.

Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki of the recently created Party of National Unity (PNU) is second with 40.2 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) with eight per cent.

A study by Consumer Insight places Odinga in first place with 43 per cent, closely followed by Kibaki with 42 per cent, and Musyoka with 15 per cent. A poll by Infotrak Harris poll gives Odinga a 12-point edge over Kibaki.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Oct. 11, cabinet minister John Koech left the governing NARC and joined the ODM. Koech—who has refused to abandon his ministerial duties—announced his decision, asserting that "the entire government is in the opposition."

The next presidential election is tentatively scheduled for December.

Polling Data

If elections were held today, who would you vote for?

Source: Strategic Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,400 Kenyan adults, conducted on Sept. 27, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Consumer Insight
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,053 Kenyan adults, conducted from Sept. 24 to Sept. 26, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Infotrak Harris
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,450 Kenyan adults, conducted on Sept. 27, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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