February 07, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is the leader in a prospective United States presidential contest against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a review of four recent voting intention polls. 54.8 per cent of voters would back the Illinois senator, while 45.3 per cent would support the former Massachusetts governor.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama was the leader in a prospective United States presidential contest against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a review of four recent voting intention polls. 54.8 per cent of voters would back the Illinois senator, while 45.3 per cent would support the former Massachusetts governor.

Obama was ahead of Romney in surveys conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for National Public Radio, TNS for the Washington Post and ABC News, RT Strategies for the Cook Political Report, and Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN.

This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of voters who have voiced a preference for either of the two main contenders. In this calculation, 6.7 per cent of respondents would either vote for other candidates or remain undecided.

On Feb. 5, Romney vowed to stay in the race, saying, "Some people who thought it was all going to be done tonight, but it is not all done tonight. We are going to keep on battling. We are going to go all the way to the convention. We are going to win this thing and we are going to go to the White House."

Earlier today, Romney announced he was suspending his campaign, declaring, "If this were only about me, I'd go on. But it's never been only about me. I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, in this time of war I feel I have to now stand aside for our party and for our country."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - National Match-ups

Mitt Romney (R) v. Barack Obama (D)

National Support

	Romney (R)	Obama (D)
ARGM Poll of Polls	38.5%	54.8%
(4) Opinion Research / CNN	36%	59%
(3) RT Strategies / Cook	41%	50%
(2) ABC News / Washington Post	36%	57%
(1) GQRR / NPR	41%	53%

(4) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN (Telephone interviews with 974 registered American voters, conducted from Feb. 1 to Feb. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.)
(3) RT Strategies / Cook Political Report (Telephone interviews with 855 registered American voters, conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.)
(2) TNS / Washington Post / ABC News (Telephone interviews with 1,249 American adults, conducted from Jan. 30 to Feb. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.)
(1) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research / National Public Radio (Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.)