Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Obama Leads McCain by Six Points in U.S. Race

June 15, 2008
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is ahead of Republican John McCain in the United States presidential race, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator this year, while 41 per cent would support the Arizona senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is ahead of Republican John McCain in the United States presidential race, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator this year, while 41 per cent would support the Arizona senator.

Support for Obama increased by one point since late April, while backing for McCain dropped by two points.

On Jun. 13, McCain discussed the process to select his vice-presidential nominee, saying, "One of the things about this is that sometimes, if you aren’t careful, we’ve seen in history, that it’s harmful to the ticket. And that’s one of your first criteria, to make sure that there’s nothing out there—the people who you are really considering that they would not have a harmful effect on the ticket, or some—so that is one of the reasons why you look very carefully early on at just about everything and try to get some help in doing it."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the next election for president were held today, and John McCain were the Republican candidate and Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?

 

Jun. 9

Apr. 28

Mar. 25

Barack Obama (D)

47%

46%

44%

John McCain (R)

41%

43%

42%

Depends

2%

1%

3%

Neither / Other

4%

5%

4%

Not sure

6%

5%

7%

Source: Hart/McInturff / The Wall Street Journal / NBC News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted from Jun. 6 to Jun 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.