February 13, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in a prospective United States presidential contest, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 48 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator, while 42 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in a prospective United States presidential contest, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 48 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator, while 42 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

In a separate match-up, 46 per cent of respondents would support New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, while 45 per cent would back McCain.

Yesterday, McCain expressed confidence in an eventual victory in the Republican contest, saying, "We are doing fine. We have 700 and some close to 800 delegates and the last time I checked, (Arkansas governor Mike) Huckabee has very few so I think I am pretty happy with the situation we are in."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the election for president were held today and the candidates were (...), for whom would you vote?

John McCain (R) 42% - 48% Barack Obama (D)
John McCain (R) 45% - 46% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

Source: Ipsos-Public Affairs / Associated Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,029 American adults, conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.