February 21, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in the early stages of the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby International released by Reuters. 47 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator, while 40 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in the early stages of the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby International released by Reuters. 47 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator, while 40 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

Support for Obama increased by four points since January, while backing for McCain fell by five points. In a separate match-up, McCain holds a 12-point lead over New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

On Feb. 19, McCain criticized Obama, declaring, "I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change that promises no more than a holiday from history and a return to the false promises and failed policies of a tired philosophy that trusts in government more than people."

On that same day, Obama chided McCain, saying, "He is a genuine American hero. But when he embraces George Bush’s failed economic policies, when he says that he is willing to send our troops into another 100 years of war in Iraq, then he represents the policies of yesterday. And we want to be the party of tomorrow."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

McCain v. Obama

	Feb. 2008	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	47%	43%	47%
John McCain (R)	40%	45%	43%
Someone else / Not sure	12%	12%	10%

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

	Feb. 2008	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007
John McCain (R)	50%	47%	49%
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	38%	42%	42%
Someone else / Not sure	13%	11%	9%

Source: Zogby International / Reuters
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,105 likely American voters, conducted from Feb. 13 to Feb. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3.0 per cent.