February 08, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama holds a slight edge in a prospective United States presidential contest against Republican John McCain, according to a review of four recent voting intention polls. 47.8 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator, while 45.8 per cent would back the Arizona senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama holds a slight edge in a prospective United States presidential contest against Republican John McCain, according to a review of four recent voting intention polls. 47.8 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator, while 45.8 per cent would back the Arizona senator.

Obama is ahead in surveys conducted by RT Strategies for the Cook Political Report and Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. McCain holds a one-point lead in studies by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for National Public Radio, and TNS for the Washington Post and ABC News.

This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of voters who have voiced a preference for either of the two main contenders. In this calculation, 6.4 per cent of respondents would either vote for other candidates or remain undecided.

On Feb. 5, Obama discussed the election, saying, "This time must be different. This time we have to turn the page. This time we have to write a new chapter in American history. This time we have to seize the moment. (...) It’s a choice between having a debate with the other party about who has the most experience in Washington or having one about who is most likely to change Washington, because that’s a debate that we can win."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - National Match-ups

John McCain (R) v. Barack Obama (D)

National Support

	McCain (R)	Obama (D)
ARGM Poll of Polls	45.8%	47.8%
(4) Opinion Research / CNN	44%	52%
(3) RT Strategies / Cook	43%	45%
(2) ABC News / Washington Post	48%	47%
(1) GQRR / NPR	48%	47%

(4) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN (Telephone interviews with 974 registered American voters, conducted from Feb. 1 to Feb. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.)
(3) RT Strategies / Cook Political Report (Telephone interviews with 855 registered American voters, conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.)
(2) TNS / Washington Post / ABC News (Telephone interviews with 1,249 American adults, conducted from Jan. 30 to Feb. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.)
(1) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research / National Public Radio (Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.)