November 27, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are tied ahead of a national election, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 43.6 per cent of respondents would back Odinga in next month’s ballot, while 43.3 per cent would vote for the incumbent.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are tied ahead of a national election, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 43.6 per cent of respondents would back Odinga in next month’s ballot, while 43.3 per cent would vote for the incumbent.

Former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) is a distant third with 11.4 per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the new Party of National Unity (PNU) and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Nov. 15, Odinga condemned what he called Kibaki’s "weak efforts" to root out corruption, saying, "Mr. Kibaki’s record on the fight against corruption is abysmal. He has come from promising zero tolerance in 2002 to total acceptance within days of taking office. (...) But despite the failed promises, the president has once again pledged, according to his manifesto, that he will personally lead the war against corruption and the recovery of stolen assets. These are all blatant lies."

The legislative and presidential ballots will take place on Dec. 27.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Nov. 19	Nov. 7	Oct. 23
Raila Odinga (ODM)	43.6%	45%	50%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	43.3%	41%	39%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	11.4%	11%	8%

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,970 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Nov. 17 to Nov. 19, 2007. No margin of error was provided.