April 20, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in five predominantly Arab nations think the situation in Iraq will not worsen if American troops decide to leave suddenly, according to a poll by Zogby International and the University of Maryland. 61 per cent of respondents in Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates think Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences after a quick troop withdrawal.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in five predominantly Arab nations think the situation in Iraq will not worsen if American troops decide to leave suddenly, according to a poll by Zogby International and the University of Maryland. 61 per cent of respondents in Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates think Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences after a quick troop withdrawal.

Conversely, 17 per cent of respondents think the situation will remain the same after troops leave, while 15 per cent say a civil war will rapidly expand.

The United States-led coalition effort against Saddam Hussein’s regime was launched in March 2003. At least 4,344 coalition soldiers have died during the military operation.

There has been no official inquiry into the actual number of Iraqi casualties. A volunteer group of British and United States academics and researchers known as Iraq Body Count (IBC) estimates that more than 82,800 Iraqi civilians have been killed during the war.

In December 2005, Iraqi voters renewed their National Assembly. In May 2006, Shiite United Iraqi Alliance member Nouri al-Maliki officially took over as prime minister.

After a major troop surge in early 2007, U.S. president George W. Bush ordered the withdrawal of thousands of soldiers from Iraq in December and then again in January 2008.

On Apr. 10, Bush ordered a halt to troop withdrawals, saying, "General [David] Petraeus says he’ll need time to consolidate his forces and assess how this reduced American presence will affect conditions on the ground before making measured recommendations on further reductions. (...) And I’ve told him he’ll have all the time he needs. We will use the months ahead to take advantage of opportunities created by the surge."

Bush’s order will stop all troop withdrawals in July, leaving close to 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq—10,000 more than before last year’s surge.

Polling Data

What do you believe would happen in Iraq if the United States quickly withdrew its forces?

Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences	61%
The situation will not change	17%
Civil war will expand rapidly	15%

Source: Zogby International/ University of Maryland
Methodology: Interviews with 4,046 adults in Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, conducted throughout March 2008. Average margin of error is 1.6 per cent.