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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
New Hampshire Polls (R): McCain 35.6%, Romney 30.2%
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain is the leader in the race for the Republican Party’s United States presidential nomination in the Granite State, according to a review of the last ten publicly released voting intention surveys. 35.6 per cent of decided voters would back the Arizona senator in today’s primary.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is second with 30.2 per cent, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 12.8 per cent, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 9.6 per cent, Texas congressman Ron Paul with 8.1 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 2.6 per cent, and California congressman Duncan Hunter with 1.1 per cent.
New Hampshire traditionally hosts the first presidential primary in the United States. Since 1952, 11 Republicans and eight Democrats have won the Granite State contest and later earned their party’s presidential nomination. New Hampshire allows independent voters to take part in primaries.
In 2004, incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican primary unopposed.
This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of decided voters. It has been used in the past to assess the outcome of presidential elections in the United States and South Korea.
Polling Data
U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - New Hampshire Republican Primary
Contenders (in alphabetical order): Rudy Giuliani (RG), Mike Huckabee (MH), Duncan Hunter (DH), John McCain (JM), Ron Paul (RP), Mitt Romney (MR), Fred Thompson (FT).
(*) Tom Tancredo officially dropped out of the race on Dec. 20, 2007. Alan Keyes has only been included in some surveys.
|
MR |
RG |
JM |
RP |
MH |
FT |
DH |
|
| ARGM Poll of Polls | 30.2% | 9.6% | 35.6% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| (55) Rasmussen Reports | 31% | 8% | 32% | 8% | 10% | 3% | -- |
| (54) Zogby International | 27% | 9% | 36% | 9% | 10% | 3% | -- |
| (53) American Research Group | 24% | 13% | 31% | 9% | 14% | 1% | 2% |
| (52) Suffolk Univ. | 30% | 11% | 26% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| (51) Rasmussen Reports | 31% | 10% | 32% | 8% | 11% | 3% | -- |
| (50) Zogby International | 29% | 9% | 34% | 8% | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| (49) Gallup / USA Today | 30% | 8% | 34% | 8% | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| (48) Marist College | 31% | 5% | 35% | 8% | 13% | 4% | 2% |
| (47) American Research Group | 27% | 10% | 35% | 7% | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| (46) Strategic Vision | 27% | 8% | 35% | 7% | 13% | 5% | 1% |
| (45) Suffolk Univ. | 30% | 10% | 27% | 8% | 9% | 2% | -- |
| (44) Franklin Pierce Univ. | 29% | 8% | 38% | 7% | 9% | 2% | -- |
| (43) UNH / CNN / WMUR | 26% | 11% | 32% | 10% | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| (42) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News | 27% | 9% | 34% | 5% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| (41) Zogby International | 32% | 7% | 31% | 6% | 12% | 3% | 1% |
| (40) Rasmussen Reports | 30% | 9% | 32% | 11% | 11% | 4% | -- |
| (39) Suffolk Univ. | 30% | 10% | 27% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| (38) Research 2000 | 29% | 8% | 35% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| (37) UNH / CNN / WMUR | 27% | 14% | 33% | 9% | 11% | 1% | 1% |
| (36) Mason-Dixon | 24% | 9% | 32% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| (35) American Research Group | 25% | 7% | 39% | 6% | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| (34) Rasmussen Reports | 26% | 8% | 31% | 14% | 11% | 5% | -- |
| (33) Zogby International | 30% | 9% | 32% | 7% | 12% | 3% | -- |
| (32) Suffolk Univ. | 30% | 11% | 26% | 8% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| (31) American Research Group | 25% | 8% | 35% | 9% | 12% | 1% | 1% |
| (30) Zogby International | 30% | 9% | 34% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| (29) Suffolk Univ. | 29% | 9% | 25% | 8% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| (28) Suffolk Univ. | 25% | 9% | 29% | 8% | 12% | 2% | 1% |
| (27) Suffolk Univ. | 23% | 11% | 32% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| (26) Franklin Pierce Univ. | 31% | 10% | 37% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| (25) UNH / CNN / WMUR | 29% | 12% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| (24) Suffolk Univ. | 25% | 14% | 31% | 6% | 9% | 2% | -- |
| (23) American Research Group | 30% | 9% | 30% | 7% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| (22) Bloomberg / LA Times | 34% | 17% | 20% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| (21) UNH / Boston Globe | 28% | 14% | 25% | 8% | 10% | 3% | -- |
| (20) American Research Group | 26% | 16% | 26% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| (19) Gallup / USA Today | 34% | 11% | 27% | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| (18) Rasmussen Reports | 31% | 13% | 27% | 7% | 11% | 3% | -- |
| (17) UNH / CNN / WMUR | 34% | 16% | 22% | 5% | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| (16) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News | 33% | 16% | 20% | 8% | 11% | 2% | -- |
| (15) Research 2000 | 31% | 18% | 17% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| (14) Suffolk Univ. | 31% | 17% | 19% | 5% | 10% | 4% | -- |
| (13) Rasmussen Reports | 32% | 15% | 18% | 8% | 14% | 2% | 1% |
| (12) UNH / CNN / WMUR | 25% | 17% | 16% | 5% | 11% | 6% | -- |
| (11) Mason-Dixon | 25% | 17% | 16% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 1% |
| (10) Zogby International | 35% | 15% | 17% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| (9) TNS / Wash. Post / ABC | 37% | 16% | 20% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| (8) Marist College | 29% | 17% | 17% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| (7) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News | 29% | 19% | 21% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
| (6) Rasmussen Reports | 34% | 15% | 15% | 8% | 14% | 3% | 1% |
| (5) American Research Group | 36% | 22% | 11% | 2% | 13% | 3% | -- |
| (4) Suffolk Univ. | 34% | 20% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| (3) Pew Research Center | 37% | 19% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
|
(2) UNH /CNN / WMUR |
33% | 16% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 4% | -- |
|
(1) CBS / NYT |
34% |
16% |
16% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
-- |
Methodology and Sources:
(55) Rasmussen Reports (1,549 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-7, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(54) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (859 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-7, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(53) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 6-7, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(52) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 6-7, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(51) Rasmussen Reports (1,094 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(50) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (834 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(49) Gallup / USA Today (776 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(48) Marist College (477 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(47) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(46) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(45) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(44) Franklin Pierce Univ. (408 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2007, 4.9 MofE)
(43) UNH / CNN / WMUR (341 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(42) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008 4.0 MofE)
(41) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (837 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 2-5, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(40) Rasmussen Reports (1,102 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(39) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(38) Research 2000 (400 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 5 MofE)
(37) UHN / CNN / WMUR (313 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 5 MofE)
(36) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(35) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Republican primary voters, Jan 2-4, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(34) Rasmussen Reports (441 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 4, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(33) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (887 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 1-4, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(32) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 3-4, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(31) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 1-3, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(30) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (1,076 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 31, 2007-Jan. 3, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(29) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 2-3, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(28) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 1-2, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(27) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 31, 2007-Jan. 1, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(26) Franklin Pierce Univ. (407 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 27-31, 2007, 4.9 MofE)
(25) UNH / CNN / WMUR (439 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 27-30, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(24) Suffolk Univ. (300 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 27-31, 2007, 5.6 MofE)
(23) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 27-29, 2007, 4.0MofE)
(22) Bloomberg / LA Times (318 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 20-23, 26, 2007, 7.0MofE)
(21) UNH / Boston Globe (405 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 16-20, 2007, 4.9 MofE)
(20) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 16-19, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(19) Gallup / USA Today (477 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 17-19, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(18) Rasmussen Reports (746 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 18, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(17) UNH / CNN / WMUR (411 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 13-17, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(16) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (500 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 11-13, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(15) Research 2000 (Republican primary voters out of 600 registered voters, Dec. 10-12, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(14) Suffolk Univ. (300 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 9-11, 2007, 5.6 MofE)
(13) Rasmussen Reports (732 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 11, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(12) UNH / CNN / WMUR (354 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 6-10, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(11) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 3-6, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(10) Zogby International (508 likely Republican primary voters, Dec. 1-3, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(9) TNS / WP / ABC (488 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 29-Dec. 3, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(8) Marist College (343 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 28-Dec. 2, 2007, 5.5 MofE)
(7) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (500 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 27-29, 2007, 4 MofE)
(6) Rasmussen Reports (881 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 29, 2007, 3.0 MofE)
(5) American Research Group (600 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 26-29, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(4) Suffolk Univ. (300 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 25-27, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(3) Pew Research Center (446 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 7-25, 2007, 5.5 MofE)
(2) UNH / CNN / WMUR (389 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 14-18, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(1) CBS News / New York Times (302 likely Republican primary voters, Nov. 9-12, 2007, 6.0 MofE)
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