Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

New Hampshire Polls (D): Obama 40.1%, Hillary 31.6%

January 08, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Barack Obama is the leader in the race for the Democratic Party’s United States presidential nomination in the Granite State, according to a review of the last eleven publicly released voting intention surveys. 40.1 per cent of decided voters would support the Illinois senator in today’s primary.

New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is second with 31.6 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 19.8 per cent, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 6.3 per cent, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with 2.2 per cent.

New Hampshire traditionally hosts the first presidential primary in the United States. Since 1952, 11 Republicans and eight Democrats have won the Granite State contest and later earned their party’s presidential nomination. New Hampshire allows independent voters to take part in primaries.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic New Hampshire primary with 38.4 per cent, followed by former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 26.3 per cent, retired general Wesley Clark with 12.4 per cent, and Edwards with 12.1 per cent.

This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of decided voters. It has been used in the past to assess the outcome of presidential elections in the United States and South Korea.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - New Hampshire Democratic Primary

Contenders (in alphabetical order): John Edwards (JE), Dennis Kucinich (DK), Barack Obama (BO), Bill Richardson (BR), Hillary Rodham Clinton (HC).

(*) Mike Gravel has only been included in some surveys. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd officially dropped out of the race on Jan. 3, 2008.

 

HC

BO

JE

BR

DK

ARGM Poll of Polls 31.6% 40.1% 19.8% 6.3% 2.2%
(56) Rasmussen Reports 30% 37% 19% 8% 3%
(55) Zogby International 29% 42% 17% 5% 2%
(54) American Research Group 31% 40% 20% 4% 2%
(53) Suffolk Univ. 34% 39% 15% 4% --
(52) Rasmussen Reports 28% 38% 18% 8% 4%
(51) Zogby International 29% 39% 19% 6% 2%
(50) Gallup / USA Today 28% 41% 19% 6% 3%
(49) Marist College 28% 36% 22% 7% 3%
(48) American Research Group 28% 39% 22% 4% 2%
(47) Strategic Vision 29% 38% 19% 7% 1%
(46) Suffolk Univ. 34% 35% 15% 3% --
(45) Franklin Pierce Univ. 31% 34% 20% 6% 1%
(44) UNH / CNN / WMUR 29% 39% 16% 7% 2%
(43) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News 28% 32% 18% 6% 2%
(42) CBS News 28% 35% 19% 5% 4%
(41) Zogby International 31% 30% 20% 7% 3%
(40) Rasmussen Reports 27% 39% 18% 8% 3%
(39) Suffolk Univ. 35% 33% 14% 5% 1%
(38) Research 2000 34% 33% 23% 4% 3%
(37) UNH / CNN / WMUR 33% 33% 20% 4% 2%
(36) American Research Group 26% 38% 20% 3% 1%
(35) Mason-Dixon 31% 33% 17% 7% 1%
(34) Rasmussen Reports 27% 37% 19% 8% 3%
(33) Zogby International 32% 28% 20% 7% 3%
(32) Suffolk Univ. 36% 29% 13% 4% 1%
(31) American Research Group 35% 31% 15% 5% 2%
(30) Zogby International 32% 26% 20% 7% 3%
(29) Suffolk Univ. 37% 26% 20% 7% 3%
(28) Suffolk Univ. 39% 23% 17% 5% 1%
(27) Suffolk Univ. 37% 20% 16% 5% 1%
(26) Franklin Pierce Univ. 32% 28% 19% 8% 1%
(25) UHN / CNN / WMUR 34% 30% 17% 5% 2%
(24) Suffolk Univ. 36% 22% 14% 7% 3%
(23) American Research Group 31% 27% 21% 5% 3%
(22) Bloomberg / LA Times 30% 32% 20% 4% 1%
(21) UNH / Boston Globe 28% 30% 14% 7% 4%
(20) American Research Group 27% 21% 18% 2% 4%
(19) Gallup / USA Today 32% 32% 18% 8% 3%
(18) Rasmussen Reports 31% 28% 18% 8% 3%
(17) UNH / CNN / WMUR 38% 26% 14% 8% 2%
(16) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News 34% 25% 15% 6% 2%
(15) Research 2000 31% 32% 18% 8% 3%

(14) Suffolk Univ.

33% 26% 15% 5% 1%
(13) UNH / CNN / WMUR 31% 30% 16% 7% 3%
(12) Rasmussen Reports 28% 31% 17% 8% 3%
(11) Mason-Dixon 30% 27% 10% 7% 3%
(10) Zogby International 32% 21% 16% 6% 3%
(9) TNS / Wash. Post / ABC 35% 29% 17% 10% 3%
(8) Marist College 37% 23% 17% 12% 3%
(7) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News 30% 23% 17% 12% 3%
(6) Rasmussen Reports 33% 26% 15% 9% 4%
(5) American Research Group 34% 23% 17% 10% 2%
(4) Suffolk Univ. 34% 22% 15% 9% 3%
(3) Pew Research Center 38% 19% 15% 10% 4%
(2) UNH / CNN / WMUR 36% 22% 13% 12% 3%

(1) CBS / NYT

37%

22%

9%

6%

5%

Methodology and Sources:

(56) Rasmussen Reports (1,774 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-7, 2008, 2.0 MofE)
(55) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (862 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-7, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(54) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 6-7, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(53) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 6-7, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(52) Rasmussen Reports (1,094 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(51) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (844 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(50) Gallup / USA Today (778 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(49) Marist College (636 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(48) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(47) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(46) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(45) Franklin Pierce Univ. (403 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2007, 4.9 MofE)
(44) UNH / CNN / WMUR (268 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 6.0 MofE)
(43) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-6, 2008 4.0 MofE)
(42) CBS News (323 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 5-6, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(41) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (844 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 2-5, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(40) Rasmussen Reports (1,210 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 3.0 MofE)
(39) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(38) Research 2000 (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 5 MofE)
(37) UNH / CNN / WMUR (359 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 5 MofE)
(36) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4-5, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(35) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan 2-4, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(34) Rasmussen Reports (510 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 4, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(33) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (893 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 1-4, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(32) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 3-4, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(31) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 1-3, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(30) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (960 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 31, 2007-Jan. 3, 2008, 3.2 MofE)
(29) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 2-3, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(28) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 1-2, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(27) Suffolk Univ. (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 31, 2007-Jan. 1, 2008, 4.4 MofE)
(26) Franklin Pierce Univ. (403 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 27-31, 2007, 4.9 MofE)
(25) UNH / CNN / WMUR (521 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 27-30, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(24) Suffolk Univ. (300 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 27-31, 2007, 5.6 MofE)
(23) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 27-29, 2007, 4.0MofE)
(22) Bloomberg / LA Times (519 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 20-23, 26, 2007, 4.0MofE)
(21) UNH / Boston Globe (420 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 16-20, 2007, 4.9 MofE)
(20) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 16-19, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(19) Gallup / USA Today (510 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 17-19, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(18) Rasmussen Reports (791 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 18, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(17) UNH / CNN / WMUR (469 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 13-17, 2007, 5.0 MofE)  
(16) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 11-13, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(15) Research 2000 (Democratic primary voters out of 600 registered voters, Dec. 10-12, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(14) Suffolk Univ. (300 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 9-11, 2007, 5.6 MofE)
(13) UNH / CNN / WMUR (378 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 6-10, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(12) Rasmussen Reports (841 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 9, 2007, 3.5 MofE)
(11) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 3-6, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(10) Zogby International (502 likely Democratic primary voters, Dec. 1-3, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(9) TNS / WP / ABC (592 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 29-Dec. 3, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(8) Marist College (454 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 28-Dec. 2, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(7) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 27-29, 2007, 4 MofE)
(6) Rasmussen Reports (959 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 29, 2007, 3.5 MofE)
(5) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 26-29, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(4) Suffolk Univ. (389 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 25-27, 2007, 5 MofE)
(3) Pew Research Center (594 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 7-25, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(2) UNH /CNN / WMUR (389 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 14-18, 2007, 5 MofE)
(1) CBS News / New York Times (417 likely Democratic primary voters, Nov. 9-12, 2007, 5.0 MofE)

 

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