(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - An upcoming ballot in New Zealand will likely result in a victory for the conservatives, according to a poll by AC Nielsen released by Fairfax Newspapers. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for the right-leaning National party in the November election to the House of Representatives, up one point since July.

The governing Labour party is behind with 34 per cent, followed by the Greens with five per cent, New Zealand First with three per cent, the Maori Party also with three per cent, and ACT with one per cent.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as National’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

On Sept. 21, the Maori Party’s Hone Harawira said his group would be willing to form a coalition government with the National party, claiming that working with them would be "no more difficult than working with Labour," and adding, "People have this big fear of National and Maori in terms of ‘oh they’d get rid of the Maori seats wouldn’t they?’ My response constantly is always: The greatest land theft of my generation has actually been the Foreshore and Seabed and that wasn’t stolen by National—that was stolen by Labour."

The next legislative election will take place on Nov. 8.

Polling Data

If an election was held today, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Source: AC Nielsen / Fairfax Newspapers
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,130 New Zealand voters, conducted from Sept. 10 to Sept. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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