March 30, 2003

Abstract: (CPOD) Mar. 30, 2003 - Former president Carlos Menem is the frontrunner in Argentina's presidential race, according to a poll by Hugo Haime y Asociados. 20 per cent of respondents say they would vote for Menem in the Apr. 27 election. Governor of the Santa Cruz province Néstor Kirchner is second with 18 per cent, and Adolfo Rodriguez Saá—governor of San Luis—is third. The three leading candidates

(CPOD) Mar. 30, 2003 - Former president Carlos Menem is the frontrunner in Argentina's presidential race, according to a poll by Hugo Haime y Asociados. 20 per cent of respondents say they would vote for Menem in the Apr. 27 election. Governor of the Santa Cruz province Néstor Kirchner is second with 18 per cent, and Adolfo Rodriguez Saá—governor of San Luis—is third. The three leading candidates are "peronists."

Despite the lead, it seems unlikely for Menem to achieve outright victory in the Apr. 27 elections. If no candidate gets more than 45 per cent of all votes—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates would take place on May 18.

Menem—in power from 1989 to 1999—was constitutionally barred from seeking a third straight term, and waited four years to run again. The former president has had to defend himself from severe allegations, from covering up the alleged involvement of Iran in the bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish centre, to his indictment over an illegal arms sales investigation.

Polling Data

Who will you vote for in the upcoming presidential election?

Carlos Menem	20%
Néstor Kirchner	18%
Adolfo Rodriguez Saá	16.5%
Elisa Carrió	12%
Ricardo López Murphy	10%

Source: Hugo Haime y Asociados.
Methodology: Interviews to 3,600 Argentine voters, conducted in late March 2003. Margin of error is 1.7 per cent.