December 19, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Pro-Kremlin presidential candidate Dmitry Medvedev has enjoyed a surge in support in Russia, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 35 per cent of respondents would vote for the deputy prime minister in next year’s election, up five points since September.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Pro-Kremlin presidential candidate Dmitry Medvedev has enjoyed a surge in support in Russia, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 35 per cent of respondents would vote for the deputy prime minister in next year’s election, up five points since September.

Former defence minister Sergei Ivanov is second with 21 per cent, followed by current prime minister Viktor Zubkov with 17 per cent, Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov with 11 per cent, Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky also with 11 per cent, former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov of the Russian People’s Democratic Union with one per cent, and Boris Nemtsov of the Union of Right Forces (SPS) also with one per cent.

Medvedev has served as deputy prime minister since November 2005, and Ivanov was appointed to the same position—and relieved of his duties as defence minister—in February. In a prospective run-off scenario, Medvedev holds a 12-point advantage over Ivanov.

Vladimir Putin was elected to a second term as president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In April 2005, Putin ruled out seeking a new mandate, saying, "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row." The next presidential election in Russia is scheduled for Mar. 2, 2008.

On Dec. 10, Putin endorsed Medvedev as a presidential candidate, saying, "I have known him very closely for more than 17 years and I completely and fully support this proposal. We have a chance to form a robust administration for the Russian Federation after the March elections—an administration that will carry out the same policies that have brought us results for the past eight years."

On Dec. 11, Medvedev endorsed Putin as a possible prime minister, saying, "I consider it of utmost importance for our country to keep Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin in the highest post of executive power—the post of head of government of the Russian Federation."

On Dec. 17, Putin announced he would be willing to serve as prime minister is Medvedev wins the March 2008 presidential election, saying, "If the people give their trust to Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev and he is elected president, then I would be ready to continue my work as head of government."

Yesterday, Nemtsov expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of Russian politics, saying, "Operation ‘successor’ is demeaning to our citizens. If the situation with the (State Duma election) is repeated, nobody in Russia or in the international arena will take Medvedev seriously."

Russian voters renewed the State Duma on Dec. 2. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. Under the country’s recently implemented proportional representation system, only three other political organizations—the KPRF, the LDPR and A Just Russia—elected lawmakers to the lower house.

Polling Data

If the following candidates participated in the 2008 presidential election, who would you vote for?
(Likely voters)

	Dec. 2007	Sept. 2007	Aug. 2007
Dmitry Medvedev	35%	30%	34%
Sergei Ivanov	21%	34%	36%
Viktor Zubkov	17%	4%	n.a.
Gennady Zyuganov	11%	15%	12%
Vladimir Zhirinovsky	11%	11%	12%
Grigory Yavlinsky	3%	n.a.	n.a.
Mikhail Kasyanov	1%	n.a.	n.a.
Boris Nemtsov	1%	n.a.	n.a.
Sergei Glazyev	n.a.	4%	1%
Dmitri Rogozin	n.a.	--	1%

If Medveded and Ivanov reached a run-off, who would you vote for?

	Nov. 2007	Sept. 2007	Aug. 2007
Dmitry Medvedev	56%	41%	46%
Sergei Ivanov	44%	59%	54%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Dec. 7 to Dec. 9, 2007. No margin of error was provided.