Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

McCain Would Defeat Clinton, Obama in 2008

October 30, 2006
Abstract: - Republican Arizona senator John McCain holds the upper hand in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for McCain, while 39 per cent would support Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

- Republican Arizona senator John McCain holds the upper hand in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for McCain, while 39 per cent would support Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In a contest pitting McCain against Democratic Illinois senator Barack Obama, the Republican holds a three-point edge.

In 2000, McCain won seven Republican presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner.

Rodham Clinton—a former first lady—was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000, and will seek a new six-year term in the upper house in the Nov. 7 election. She ruled out a presidential bid in 2004.

Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004, defeating Republican Alan Keyes with 70 per cent of the vote. On Oct. 22, Obama discussed a possible White House run, saying, "I don't want to be coy about this: given the responses that I've been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you vote?

John McCain (R) 45% - 39% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
John McCain (R) 41% - 38% Barack Obama (D)

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 American likely voters, conducted on Oct. 24 and Oct. 25, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.