February 02, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The 2008 presidential election in the United States could be very close if John McCain becomes the Republican Party’s nominee, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator, while 44 per cent would back Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The 2008 presidential election in the United States could be very close if John McCain becomes the Republican Party’s nominee, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator, while 44 per cent would back Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In a match-up pitting McCain against Illinois senator Barack Obama, 44 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican, and 43 per cent would back the Democrat.

In other contests, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney trails Rodham Clinton by 14 points, and Obama by 18 points.

Yesterday, former solicitor general Ted Olson endorsed McCain, saying, "I have long admired John McCain for his courage, character, and integrity. He is the candidate best prepared to lead as commander in chief from day one. John McCain has a deep-rooted conservative philosophy and I trust him to appoint strict constructionists (...) to judicial positions."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were (...)?

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007
John McCain (R)	45%	47%	45%
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	44%	42%	46%

McCain v. Obama

	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007	Sept. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	44%	40%	40%
John McCain (R)	43%	44%	38%

Romney v. Rodham Clinton

	Jan. 2008	Nov. 2007	Oct. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	50%	50%	50%
Mitt Romney (R)	36%	37%	38%

Romney v. Obama

	Jan. 2008
Barack Obama (D)	51%
Mitt Romney (R)	33%

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Jan. 30 and Jan. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.