February 06, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Republican John McCain holds the upper hand in a prospective United States presidential contest against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to a review of four recent voting intention polls. 47.5 per cent of voters would support the Arizona senator, while 45.3 per cent would back the New York senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Republican John McCain holds the upper hand in a prospective United States presidential contest against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to a review of four recent voting intention polls. 47.5 per cent of voters would support the Arizona senator, while 45.3 per cent would back the New York senator.

McCain is ahead in surveys conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for National Public Radio, TNS for the Washington Post and ABC News, and RT Strategies for the Cook Political Report. Rodham Clinton holds a three-point lead in the study by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN.

This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of voters who have voiced a preference for either of the two main contenders. In this calculation, 7.2 per cent of respondents would either vote for other candidates or remain undecided.

On Feb. 4, former New York governor George Pataki endorsed McCain, saying, "These are times that demand experienced, principled leadership. That leader is Senator John McCain. No one can bring the American people together in these challenging times better than John McCain."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - National Match-ups

John McCain (R) v. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

National Support

	McCain (R)	Clinton (D)
ARGM Poll of Polls	47.5%	45.3%
(4) Opinion Research / CNN	47%	50%
(3) RT Strategies / Cook	45%	41%
(2) TNS / ABC / Washington Post	50%	45%
(1) GQRR / NPR	48%	45%

(4) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN (Telephone interviews with 974 registered American voters, conducted from Feb. 1 to Feb. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.)
(3) RT Strategies / Cook Political Report (Telephone interviews with 855 registered American voters, conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.)
(2) TNS / Washington Post / ABC News (Telephone interviews with 1,249 American adults, conducted from Jan. 30 to Feb. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.)
(1) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research / National Public Radio (Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.)