Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

McCain Keeps Slight Edge Over Obama in U.S.

January 23, 2008
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Republican John McCain holds a small advantage over Democrat Barack Obama in a prospective 2008 United States presidential contest, according to a poll by Zogby International released by Reuters. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator, while 43 per cent would back the Illinois senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Republican John McCain holds a small advantage over Democrat Barack Obama in a prospective 2008 United States presidential contest, according to a poll by Zogby International released by Reuters. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator, while 43 per cent would back the Illinois senator.

Support for McCain in this match-up increased by two points since December, while backing for Obama fell by four points. In another match-up, McCain holds a five-point lead over New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Three other Republican contenders trail the two Democratic frontrunners. Both Obama and Rodham Clinton lead former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by at least 10 points, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee by at least five points, and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani by at least 11 points.

On Jan. 20, former North Carolina senator John Edwards—who is seeking the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination—discussed McCain’s campaign, saying, "He is starting to look like the Republican nominee, and I think it’s important for us to have somebody to run against McCain who can beat him. (...) This is a guy who’s made central to his political life campaign finance reform. It seems to me we ought to be putting somebody up against him who’s never taken money from special interest PACs or Washington lobbyists. Between the three of us, that’s me."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

McCain v. Obama

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

John McCain (R)

45%

43%

42%

Barack Obama (D)

43%

47%

45%

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

John McCain (R)

47%

49%

43%

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

42%

42%

45%

Romney v. Obama

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

Barack Obama (D)

53%

53%

49%

Mitt Romney (R)

34%

35%

35%

Romney v. Rodham Clinton

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

47%

46%

48%

Mitt Romney (R)

37%

44%

38%

Huckabee v. Obama

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Barack Obama (D)

51%

47%

Mike Huckabee (R)

36%

42%

Huckabee v. Rodham Clinton

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Mike Huckabee (R)

47%

48%

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

38%

43%

Giuliani v. Obama

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

Barack Obama (D)

51%

48%

46%

Rudy Giuliani (R)

34%

39%

42%

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton

 

Jan. 2008

Dec. 2007

Jul. 2007

Rudy Giuliani (R)

46%

46%

41%

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

35%

42%

46%

Source: Zogby International / Reuters
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,006 likely American voters, conducted on Jan. 10 and Jan. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.