Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

McCain, Giulani Lead GOP Presidential Hopefuls

March 28, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Supporters of the Republican Party in the United States have two favourite contenders for the 2008 presidential election, according to the Financial Dynamics Diageo/Hotline poll. 25 per cent of respondents would back Arizona senator John McCain in a primary election, while 23 per cent would vote for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Support is lower for former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, Tennessee senator Bill Frist, Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Virginia senator George Allen, New York governor George Pataki, Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel, and Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo.

Giuliani garnered national and international attention in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In 2000, McCain won seven Republican presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner.

If the nomination were decided in a head-to-head contest, 42 per cent of respondents would vote for Giuliani, and 40 per cent would back McCain.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were (the following)? If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?

John McCain

25%

Rudy Giuliani

23%

Newt Gingrich

7%

Bill Frist

5%

Mitt Romney

4%

George Allen

3%

George Pataki

2%

Chuck Hagel

1%

Tom Tancredo

1%

None of these

4%

Wouldn't vote

1%

Unsure

22%

Now, suppose the 2008 Republican presidential primary were being held today between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote? Which way would you lean as of today?

Rudy Giuliani

42%

John McCain

40%

Unsure

14%

Refused

3%

Source: Financial Dynamics / Diageo/Hotline
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 602 registered Republicans, conducted from Mar. 16 to Mar. 19, 2006. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

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