June 23, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Lisbon Treaty would not survive a hypothetical referendum in Britain, according to a poll by YouGov. 44 per cent of respondents say they would vote against adopting the new common body of law for European Union (EU) members, while only 19 per cent would vote in favour.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Lisbon Treaty would not survive a hypothetical referendum in Britain, according to a poll by YouGov. 44 per cent of respondents say they would vote against adopting the new common body of law for European Union (EU) members, while only 19 per cent would vote in favour.

EU heads of state officially signed the European Constitution on Oct. 29, 2004. The project for a continental body of law was practically abandoned in 2005, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed document in two plebiscites.

In October 2007, leaders of the 27 EU member nations reached an agreement on the Lisbon Treaty and Charter of Fundamental Rights. The Lisbon Treaty provisions call for the creation of new posts, such as a foreign policy chief, and a High Representative who will answer to EU governments and serve as vice-president of the European Commission. The Charter will become legally binding in all EU member states except Britain, which negotiated an exemption.

The EU leaders would also choose a president of the European Council for a two and a half year renewable term. This will effectively eliminate the current six-month rotating presidency among member nations. The Lisbon Treaty also provides for the creation of a mutual defence clause, in case one of the member states is attacked.

If all countries ratify the treaty—whether through a referendum or a parliamentary vote—it will become effective in January 2009. Ireland, due to its internal regulations, is the only country that must hold a nationwide vote on the Lisbon Treaty, while other governments can decide whether they want to do the same. On Jun. 12, 53.4 per cent of Irish voters rejected the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty.

Following the Irish vote, Bill Cash, an outspoken Eurosceptic Conservative lawmaker, said the British prime minister should decline from adopting the agreement altogether, declaring, "The treaty cannot now be performed because the change of circumstances. Article 29 of the Irish constitution means the referendum result is binding on the Irish government whatever the others do. In those circumstances, the treaty itself must now be abandoned."

In December 2007, British prime minister Gordon Brown—the Labour party leader—signed the Lisbon Treaty on behalf of Britain. In March, the House of Commons approved the agreement. On Jun. 18, the House of Lords—the upper house of Parliament—ratified the treaty.

Polling Data

If there were a referendum on the new European Union treaty how would you vote?

I would vote in favour of the European reform treaty	19%
I would vote against the European reform treaty	44%
I would not vote at all	6%
Don’t know	31%

Source: YouGov
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,769 British voters, conducted on Jun. 12 and Jun. 13, 2008. No margin of error was provided.