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Likud, Kadima Fight for First Place in Israel
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Israel’s governing Kadima party is catching up to its main contender ahead of a legislative election, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows the centre-right Likud party would win 29 seats in the upcoming ballot, up one since early January.
Kadima is a close second with 27 seats, followed by Labour with 17 mandates, Israel Our Home with 13 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, Yahadut Hatorah, and Jewish Home. The Arab parties would get 10 seats.
In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.
In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.
Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.
The Islamic Jihad organization launched Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since the Islamic militant and political party Hamas took control of the territory in June 2007. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. On Dec. 21, 2008, a six-month "calm agreement" between Israel and Hamas expired. The launching of rockets into southern Israel resumed.
On Dec. 27, Israel launched a series of aerial attacks against what it deems "Hamas targets" in the Gaza Strip, including the Al Aqsa television station and the Islamic University of Gaza. On Jan. 3, Israeli ground troops entered Gaza. More than 900 people have died on the Palestinian side and close to 4,300 have been wounded. Women and children account for more than a third of the Palestinian fatalities, and almost half of the injuries. The Israeli death toll is tabled at 13 people.
On Jan. 12, Livni ruled out holding talks with Hamas, declaring, "I am not going to negotiate with Hamas and don’t need them to sign anything for me. What they said is meaningless. This is what is called deterrence: they know that the next time they attack us, they will be harmed."
Polling Data
Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)
|
|
Jan. 8 |
Jan. 1 |
Dec. 10 |
|
Likud (Consolidation) |
29 |
28 |
35 |
|
Kadima (Forward) |
27 |
28 |
21 |
|
Labour |
17 |
16 |
15 |
|
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) |
13 |
12 |
11 |
|
International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) |
9 |
11 |
12 |
|
Vitality-Together (Meretz-Yachad) |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) |
6 |
5 |
7 |
|
Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) |
4 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
|
Arab parties |
10 |
10 |
10 |
Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 800 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 8, 2009. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.