December 14, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A second term in office remains elusive for Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in this month’s election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A second term in office remains elusive for Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in this month’s election.

Kibaki is second with 41 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) with 10 per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the new Party of National Unity (PNU) and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Dec. 4, Shriti Vadera, the British parliamentary under-secretary of state at the Department for International Development, told Britain’s legislators to expect little change stemming from Kenya’s upcoming election, saying, "Ethnicity and patronage are still important determinants of the outcome of elections and a career in politics is still one of the quickest ways of accumulating wealth. The incumbents and the opposition are mostly cut from the same cloth."

On Dec. 9, Kenyan justice minister Martha Karua responded to Vadera’s pre-electoral report, urging British lawmakers to concentrate on their own "grand corruption scandals and other rot," and adding, "They are our friends but we want to remind them we are not their colony nor do we depend on them for survival."

The legislative and presidential ballots will take place on Dec. 27.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Dec. 3	Nov. 19	Nov. 7
Raila Odinga (ODM)	46%	43.6%	45%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	41%	43.3%	41%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	10%	11.4%	11%

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,700 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Dec. 1 to Dec. 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.