Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Kibaki Favoured to Win Kenyan Election

April 08, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mwai Kibaki is the clear frontrunner in Kenya's presidential race, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the incumbent head of state, up nine points since December.

Former roads and public works minister Raila Odinga is second with 17 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 14 per cent. Support is lower for Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU), KANU secretary-general William Ruto, and prospective Orange Democratic Movement (ODM-Kenya) candidate Musalia Mudavadi.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Kenyatta with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

Last week, ODM-Kenya officials and supporters stormed the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) offices demanding the registration of the party's orange symbol, which is at the centre of an ownership row. The ECK finally approved the symbol, which the party required in order to participate in upcoming by-elections.

ODM-Kenya was formed as a result of the 2005 constitutional referendum proposed by the government. Due to the country's high levels of illiteracy, the "Yes" vote was represented with a banana and the "No" with an orange. The "No" side, supported by the ODM-Kenya, won with 58.12 per cent of the vote.

The next presidential election is tentatively scheduled for December.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Mar. 2007

Dec. 2006

Sept. 2006

Mwai Kibaki (NARC)

51%

42%

41%

Raila Odinga

17%

14%

13%

Kalonzo Musyoka (LDP)

14%

20%

20%

Uhuru Kenyatta (KANU)

2%

5%

5%

William Ruto

2%

3%

3%

Musalia Mudavadi

2%

2%

2%

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,027 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Mar. 14 to Mar. 21, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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