November 25, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Incumbent Mwai Kibaki could lose the presidency to opponent Raila Odinga in Kenya’s upcoming election, according to a poll by Gallup. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in next month’s ballot, while 42 per cent would back Kibaki.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Incumbent Mwai Kibaki could lose the presidency to opponent Raila Odinga in Kenya’s upcoming election, according to a poll by Gallup. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in next month’s ballot, while 42 per cent would back Kibaki.

Former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) is a distant third with 11 per cent.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the new Party of National Unity (PNU) and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Nov. 23, police commissioner Hussein Ali expressed concern over possible electoral violence, as he referred to the finding of weapons such as clubs, machetes, bows and arrows, in a government car assigned to assistant minister Raphael Wanjala.

Ali urged candidates to refrain from instigating violence, saying, "I wish to caution politicians and their supporters against attempting to prevent their competitors from presenting their nomination papers by engaging in hooliganism or even abducting their opponents. (…) These are very serious offences, some of which attract capital punishment. Anyone who incites violence or targets other candidates must be prepared to face the full might of the law."

The legislative and presidential ballots will take place on Dec. 27.

Polling Data

If the elections were held today, who would you vote for?

Raila Odinga (ODM)	45%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	42%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	11%

Source: Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 registered Kenyan voters in the eight provinces, conducted from Oct. 25 to Nov. 10, 2007. No margin of error was provided.