(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in Kenya think their coalition government will last until the next presidential elections are held, according to a poll by Gallup. 56 per cent of respondents in eight Kenyan provinces share this opinion, while 18 per cent give the agreement at least one year.

Kenyans voted in presidential and legislative elections in December 2007. Official results gave incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) 46.64 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) with 44.28 per cent.

Odinga’s camp complained about irregularities in the ballot count, claiming that Kibaki’s total was inflated by 300,000 votes. The allegations practically paralyzed Kenyan politics, and saw the return of violent incidents that had marred the electoral campaign.

By late Febuary, post-election violence in Kenya had claimed more than 1,000 lives. On Feb. 28—following the mediation by former United Nations (UN) secretary-general Kofi Annan—Kibaki and Odinga reached a preliminary power-sharing deal. The terms entailed the creation of the post of prime minister, who would "coordinate and supervise" government affairs. Kenya would also have two deputy prime ministers, one nominated by each member of the coalition. Kibaki remained as president, and Odinga became prime minister.

On Sept. 8, Odinga reprimanded members of his ODM party who want to create a "Grand Opposition" to the coalition government, saying, "Do not try to split the party. You cannot join hands with members of other parties and still purport to be in ODM. We cannot have members who score in our own goal after we pass the ball to them. (...) There are things which are unique to the party and cannot be shared. These are held by all MPs both in Government and the Backbench. We must have our MPs in the backbench and not as an opposition."

Polling Data

How long do you expect the grand coalition government to last?

Source: Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,200 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Jun. 19 to Jul. 9, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

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