December 26, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is no clear frontrunner in tomorrow’s presidential ballot in Kenya, according to a review of three recent voting intention polls. In a survey by Strategic Research, 43 per cent of respondents would vote for opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), while 39 per cent would back incumbent Mwai Kibaki.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is no clear frontrunner in tomorrow’s presidential ballot in Kenya, according to a review of three recent voting intention polls. In a survey by Strategic Research, 43 per cent of respondents would vote for opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), while 39 per cent would back incumbent Mwai Kibaki.

In a study by Gallup, Kibaki holds a one-point edge over Odinga. In a poll by Steadman Research Services, Odinga is two points ahead of Kibaki. Former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya) is a distant third in all three surveys.

In the 2002 presidential election, National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.

On Sept. 1, the ODM chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the new Party of National Unity (PNU) and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Dec. 25, Kibaki urged voters to support him, saying "I am sure of a good win. I am asking all of you to vote for us. Those others have done nothing. They had a chance to work, but they did not. I am ready to continue with the work we have started. (...) We shall amend the law to stop corrupt people from joining politics. It is unfortunate that people steal from the public and run to politics."

Odinga also expressed confidence in a victory, declaring, "ODM supporters should not fear but turn out in large numbers and vote. There will be enough security. (...) I will not sit and watch corruption continue ruining the country. For every shilling the poor earns, the rich gets 66. This government has been playing politics with poverty."

The legislative and presidential ballots will take place on Dec. 27.

Polling Data

If elections were held today, who would you vote for?

	Strategic	Gallup	Steadman
Raila Odinga (ODM)	43%	43%	45%
Mwai Kibaki (PNU)	39%	44%	43%
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya)	17%	12%	10%

Source: Strategic Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,400 Kenyan adults, conducted in December 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 Kenyan adults, conducted from Dec. 5 to Dec. 14, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,700 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Dec. 11 to Dec. 16, 2007. No margin of error was provided.