Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Ivanov Edges Medvedev in Russian Federation

August 30, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Sergei Ivanov, a former defence minister, remains the most popular contender in the early stages of Russia's presidential race, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for Ivanov in the 2008 election.

Deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is second with 34 per cent, followed by Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov with 12 per cent, and Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky also with 12 per cent. Any "liberal candidate" would be backed by three per cent of respondents. Support is lower for Sergei Glazyev of For a Dignified Life, and former Motherland - National Patriotic Union (MDRT) leader Dmitri Rogozin.

Vladimir Putin was elected to a second term as president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In April 2005, Putin ruled out seeking a new mandate, saying, "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row." The next presidential election in Russia is tentatively scheduled for March 2008.

Medvedev has served as deputy prime minister since November 2005, and Ivanov was appointed to the same position—and relieved of his duties as defence minister—in February. Both have been identified as the Kremlin's main contenders in the election. In a prospective run-off scenario, Ivanov holds an eight-point advantage over Medvedev.

Earlier this month, Ivanov defended the Russian government's decision to deploy strategic bombers on long-range flights, claiming Russian pilots need to "acquire professional experience", and adding, "This isn't connected with thinking in terms of blocs or conflicts, let along a return to the Cold War. This is an ordinary working situation. There are no conflicts. We are flying by the same transparent, understandable rules as our American partners."

Polling Data

If the following candidates participated in the 2008 presidential election, who would you vote for?
(Likely voters)

Aug. 2007

Jul. 2007

Jun. 2007

Sergei Ivanov

36%

37%

31%

Dmitry Medvedev

34%

29%

27%

Gennady Zyuganov

12%

14%

14%

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

12%

11%

14%

"A liberal candidate" (*)

3%

5%

7%

Sergei Glazyev

1%

4%

5%

Dmitri Rogozin

1%

1%

2%

(*) July survey listed support for Grigory Yavlinsky instead of "A liberal candidate."

If Medveded and Ivanov reached a run-off, who would you vote for?

Aug. 2007

Jul. 2007

Jun. 2007

Sergei Ivanov

54%

59%

55%

Dmitry Medvedev

46%

41%

45%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Aug. 10 to Aug. 13, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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