December 30, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Few adults in Israel expect their government to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians next year, according to a poll by the Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot. 89 per cent of respondents think the chances of a deal are low.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Few adults in Israel expect their government to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians next year, according to a poll by the Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot. 89 per cent of respondents think the chances of a deal are low.

In addition, 88 per cent believe no solution will be found to deal with the problem of militants launching Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza, 70 per cent say no negotiations will open with Syria, and 69 per cent think there is little chance of Israel attacking Iran in 2008.

On other topics, 45 per cent of respondents believe captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit will be freed by Hamas, and 43 per cent expect an early legislative ballot in Israel. When asked to assess the 2008 United States presidential election, 60 per cent of respondents believe there is a high probability that a woman will win the race, while 25 per cent feel the same way about the chances of African American.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is currently heading the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank, endorsed by Israel and most of the Western international community. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has become the de-facto leader in the Gaza Strip.

Last month, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by United States president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

On Dec. 27, Hamas issued a communiqué condemning any possible negotiation. The statement read: "Olmert and his government continue their daily aggressions against our people, continue to build settlements, and don’t recognize Palestinian political and national rights."

Polling Data

What do you predict will be at the end of 2008?

	High	Low
Deal reached with the Palestinians	10%	89%
Solution found for the Qassams	12%	88%
Negotiations open with the Syrians	29%	70%
Israel attacks Iran	28%	69%
Gilad Shalit released by Hamas	45%	54%
Knesset elections advanced and held	43%	54%
A woman elected U.S. president for the first time	60%	38%
An African American elected U.S. president for the first time	25%	73%

Source: Dahaf Institute / Yediot Ahronot
Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 27, 2007. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.