Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Iowa Polls (R): Huckabee 31.0%, Romney 29.1%

January 03, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mike Huckabee is leading the United States presidential race among Republican Party supporters in Iowa, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 31 per cent of decided voters in the Hawkeye State would back the former Arkansas governor in today’s caucus.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is a close second with 29.1 per cent, followed by Arizona senator John McCain with 12.8 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 11.9 per cent, Texas congressman Ron Paul with 8.1 per cent, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with six per cent, and California congressman Duncan Hunter with 0.8 per cent.

Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.

In 2004, incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.

This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of decided voters. It has been used in the past to assess the outcome of elections in the United States and South Korea.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - Iowa Republican Caucus

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Rudy Giuliani (RG), Mike Huckabee (MH), Duncan Hunter (DH), John McCain (JM), Ron Paul (RP), Mitt Romney (MR), Fred Thompson (FT).

(*) Tom Tancredo officially dropped out of the race on Dec. 20, 2007. Alan Keyes has only been included in some surveys.

 

MR

MH

RG

FT

JM

RP

DH

ARGM Poll of Polls 29.1% 31.0% 6.0% 11.9% 12.8% 8.1% 0.8%
(40) Zogby International 25% 31% 6% 11% 10% 10% 1%
(39) Zogby International 26% 28% 7% 12% 12% 9% 1%
(38) Zogby International 25% 29% 8% 10% 12% 7% 1%
(37) Strategic Vision 30% 28% 4% 13% 16% 4% 1%
(36) Selzer & Co. / DM Register 26% 32% 5% 9% 13% 9% 1%
(35) Opinion Research / CNN 31% 28% 8% 13% 10% 8% --
(34) Zogby International 27% 29% 7% 8% 13% 7% 1%
(33) Zogby International 28% 29% 8% 8% 11% 8% 1%
(32) Mason-Dixon 27% 23% 5% 14% 13% 5% 1%
(31) American Research Group 32% 23% 6% 7% 11% 6% 2%
(30) Research 2000 27% 34% 8% 11% 8% 8% 1%
(29) Strategic Vision 27% 29% 4% 15% 14% 4% 1%
(28) Bloomberg / LA Times 28% 36% 8% 10% 8% 1% 2%
(27) American Research Group 21% 23% 14% 3% 17% 1% 2%
(26) American Research Group 17% 28% 13% 5% 20% 4% --
(25) Strategic Vision 25% 31% 6% 16% 8% 5% 1%
(24) Opinion Research / CNN 25% 33% 11% 9% 9% 6% 1%
(23) TNS / Wash. Post / ABC 27% 35% 8% 9% 6% 8% 1%
(22) Rasmussen Reports 27% 28% 8% 8% 14% 6% 1%
(21) Insider Advantage 25% 28% 6% 10% 9% 6% 1%
(20) Research 2000 22% 31% 9% 9% 7% 7% 1%
(19) Diageo / Hotline 23% 36% 12% 8% 5% 5% --
(18) Strategic Vision 25% 30% 10% 13% 5% 4% 1%
(17) Rasmussen Reports 23% 39% 8% 8% 6% 5% 1%
(16) PSRA / Newsweek 17% 39% 9% 10% 6% 8% --
(15) Mason-Dixon 20% 32% 5% 11% 7% 2% 1%
(14) Strategic Vision 24% 27% 13% 11% 6% 5% 1% 
(13) Zogby International 26% 25% 12% 8% 5% 5% 1% 
(12) American Research Group 28% 27% 9% 14% 9% 3% --
(11) Selzer & Co. / DM Register 24% 29% 13% 9% 7% 7% 1%
(10) Rasmussen Reports 25% 28% 12% 11% 4% 5% 1% 
(9) Strategic Vision 26% 24% 14% 10% 7% 5% 1%
(8) Pew Research Center 25% 24% 14% 12% 5% 5% 1%

(7) TNS / WP /ABC News 

28% 24% 13% 15% 6% 6% 1%
(6) Iowa State University 25% 22% 16% 9% 8% 3% --
(5) Research 2000 27% 18%  16%  10%  6% 5%  1% 
(4) American Research Group 26% 24% 11%  11%  10% 3%  1% 

(3) Rasmussen Reports

29% 16%  15%  14%  6%  4%  2% 

(2) Strategic Vision

30%

19%

12%

11%

7%

5%

1%

(1) CBS / NYT

27%

21%

15%

9%

4%

4%

2%

Methodology and Sources:

(40) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (914 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 30, 2007-Jan. 2, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(39) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (933 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 29, 2007-Jan. 1, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(38) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (928 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 28-31, 2007, 3.3 MofE)
(37) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 28-30, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(36) Selzer & Co. / Des Moines Register (405 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 27-30, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(35) Opinion Research / CNN (373 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 26-30, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(34) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (876 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 27-30, 2007, 3.4 MofE)
(33) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (867 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 26-29, 2007, 3.4 MofE)
(32) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 26-28, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(31) American Research Group (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 26-28, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(30) Research 2000 (500 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 26-27, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(29) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 26-27, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(28) Bloomberg / LA Times (174 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 20-23, 26, 2007, 7.0 MofE)
(27) American Research Group (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 20-23, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(26) American Research Group (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 16-19, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(25) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 16-18, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(24) Opinion Research / CNN (359 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 14-18, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(23) TNS / Wash. Post / ABC (501 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 13-17, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(22) Rasmussen Reports (496 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 13-17, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(21) InsiderAdvantage (835 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 16-17, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(20) Research 2000 / Quad City Times (500 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 10-13, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(19) Financial Dynamics / Diageo/Hotline (446 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 7-12, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(18) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 8-10, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(17) Rasmussen Reports (789 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 10, 2007, 3.5 MofE)
(16) PSRA / Newsweek (275 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 5-6, 2007, 7.0 MofE)
(15) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Republican caucus goers, Dec. 3-6, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(14) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(13) Zogby International (508 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 29-Dec. 1, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(12) American Research Group (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 26-29, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(11) Selzer & Co. / Des Moines Register (500 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 25-28, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(10) Rasmussen Reports (839 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 26-27, 2007, 3.5 MofE)
(9) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 23-25, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(8) Pew Research Center (264 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 7-25, 2007, 7.0 MofE)
(7) TNS / Washington Post / ABC News (400 likely Republican caucus goers, Nov. 14-18, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(6) Iowa State University (Republican caucus goers out of 1,416 registered voters, Nov. 6-18, 2007, 6.0 MofE)
(5) Research 2000 (400 Republican caucus goers, Nov. 12-14, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(4) American Research Group (600 Republican caucus goers, Nov. 10-14, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(3) Rasmussen Reports (825 Republican caucus goers, Nov. 12, 2007, 3.5 MofE)
(2) Strategic Vision (600 Republican caucus goers, Nov. 9-12, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(1) CBS News / New York Times (480 Republican caucus goers, Nov. 2-11, 2007, 5.0 MofE)

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