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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Iowa Polls (D): Obama 32.6%, Hillary 28.3%
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Barack Obama is leading the United States presidential race among Democratic Party supporters in Iowa, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 32.6 per cent of decided voters in the Hawkeye State would back the Illinois senator in today’s caucus.
New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is second with 28.3 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 26.4 per cent, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 5.7 per cent, Delaware senator Joe Biden with 4.6 per cent, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd with 1.3 per cent, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with 0.8 per cent.
Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.
In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent.
This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of decided voters. It has been used in the past to assess the outcome of elections in the United States and South Korea.
Polling Data
U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - Iowa Democratic Caucus
Contenders (in alphabetical order): Joe Biden (JB), Chris Dodd (CD), John Edwards (JE), Dennis Kucinich (DK), Barack Obama (BO), Bill Richardson (BR), Hillary Rodham Clinton (HC).
(*) Mike Gravel has only been included in some surveys.
|
HC |
BO |
JE |
BR |
JB |
DK |
CD |
|
| ARGM Poll of Polls | 28.3% | 32.6% | 26.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| (40) Zogby International | 24% | 31% | 27% | 7% | 5% | -- | 1% |
| (39) Zogby International | 28% | 28% | 26% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (38) Zogby International | 30% | 26% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (37) Strategic Vision | 27% | 32% | 29% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (36) Selzer & Co. / DM Register | 25% | 32% | 24% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| (35) Opinion Research / CNN | 33% | 31% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (34) Zogby International | 30% | 26% | 26% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (33) Zogby International | 31% | 27% | 24% | 5% | 5% | -- | 1% |
| (32) Mason-Dixon | 23% | 22% | 24% | 12% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| (31) American Research Group | 31% | 24% | 24% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| (30) Research 2000 | 28% | 29% | 29% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| (29) Strategic Vision | 29% | 30% | 28% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (28) Bloomberg / LA Times | 31% | 22% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| (27) American Research Group | 34% | 19% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 2% |
| (26) American Research Group | 29% | 25% | 18% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 3% |
| (25) Strategic Vision | 27% | 30% | 27% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (24) Opinion Research / CNN | 30% | 28% | 26% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| (23) TNS / Wash. Post / ABC | 29% | 33% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (22) Rasmussen Reports | 31% | 27% | 22% | 9% | 5% | n.a. | n.a. |
| (21) Insider Advantage | 26% | 24% | 30% | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| (20) Research 2000 | 24% | 33% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| (19) Diageo / Hotline | 27% | 27% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (18) Strategic Vision |
25% |
33% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (17) Rasmussen Reports | 29% | 26% | 22% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| (16) PSRA / Newsweek | 29% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | -- | -- |
| (15) Mason-Dixon | 27% | 25% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (14) Strategic Vision | 25% | 32% | 25% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| (13) Zogby International | 27% | 24% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 2% | -- |
| (12) American Research Group | 25% | 27% | 23% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 3% |
| (11) Selzer & Co. / DM Register | 25% | 28% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| (10) Rasmussen Reports | 27% | 25% | 24% | 10% | -- | -- | -- |
| (9) Strategic Vision | 29% | 29% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (8) Pew Research Center | 31% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| (7) TNS / WP /ABC News | 26% | 30% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| (6) Iowa State University | 31% | 20% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (5) Research 2000 | 27% | 25% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| (4) American Research Group | 27% | 21% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| (3) Rasmussen Reports | 29% | 24% | 25% | 10% | 3% | n.a. | n.a. |
|
(2) Strategic Vision |
29% |
27% |
20% |
7% |
5% |
1% |
1% |
|
(1) CBS / NYT |
25% |
22% |
23% |
12% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
Methodology and Sources:
(40) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (905 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 30, 2007-Jan. 2, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(39) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (882 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 29, 2007-Jan. 1, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(38) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (925 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 28-31, 2007, 3.3 MofE)
(37) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 28-30, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(36) Selzer & Co. / Des Moines Register (399 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 27-30, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(35) Opinion Research / CNN (482 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 26-30, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(34) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (899 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 27-30, 2007, 3.3 MofE)
(33) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (934 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 26-29, 2007, 3.3 MofE)
(32) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 26-28, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(31) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 26-28, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(30) Research 2000 (500 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 26-27, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(29) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 26-27, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(28) Bloomberg / LA Times (389 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 20-23, 26, 2007, 5.0MofE)
(27) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 20-23, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(26) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 16-19, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(25) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 16-18, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(24) Opinion Research / CNN (543 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 14-18, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(23) TNS / Wash. Post / ABC (652 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 13-17, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(22) Rasmussen Reports (775 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 17, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(21) InsiderAdvantage (977 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 10-13, 2007, 3.0 MofE)
(20) Research 2000 / Quad City Times (500 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 10-13, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(19) Financial Dynamics / Diageo/Hotline (569 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 7-12, 2007, 4 MofE)
(18) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 8-10, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(17) Rasmussen Reports (1,106 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 10, 2007, 3.0 MofE)
(16) PSRA / Newsweek (395 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 5-6, 2007, 6.0 MofE)
(15) Mason-Dixon / McClatchy / MSNBC (400 likely Democratic caucus goers, Dec. 3-6, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(14) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(13) Zogby International (514 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 29-Dec. 1, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(12) American Research Group (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 26-29, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(11) Selzer & Co. / Des Moines Register (500 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 25-28, 2007, 4.4 MofE)
(10) Rasmussen Reports (1,156 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 26-27, 2007, 3.0 MofE)
(9) Strategic Vision (600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 23-25, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(8) Pew Research Center (460 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 7-25, 2007, 6.0 MofE)
(7) TNS / Washington Post / ABC News (500 likely Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 14-18, 2007, 4.5 MofE)
(6) Iowa State University (Democratic caucus goers out of 1,416 registered voters, Nov. 6-18, 2007, 6.0 MofE)
(5) Research 2000 (400 Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 12-14, 2007, 5.0 MofE)
(4) American Research Group (600 Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 10-14, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(3) Rasmussen Reports (1,239 Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 12, 2007, 3.0 MofE)
(2) Strategic Vision (600 Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 9-12, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
(1) CBS News / New York Times (793 Democratic caucus goers, Nov. 2-11, 2007, 4.0 MofE)
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