(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals of Australian prime minister John Howard is failing to gain momentum before an election this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 44.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the House of Representatives ballot.

The Coalition is second with 39 per cent—down two points in as many weeks—followed by the Australian Greens with 10.5 per cent. Support is lower for the Australian Democrats, Family First, and One Nation. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 12-point lead over the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

On Nov. 8, Greens leader Bob Brown criticized the two major parties’ support for uranium sales to Russia and China, declaring, "Both parties want to export uranium into China, which has rockets which can now reach Sydney and Melbourne. (...) Both parties want to export uranium to (Vladimir) Putin’s Russia, for goodness sake, which is supplying Iran and potentially Burma, with nuclear technology."

A legislative election is scheduled for Nov. 24.

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next election to the House of Representatives?

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 552 Australian voters, conducted on Nov. 7 add Nov. 8, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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