Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Guatemala 2007: Colom 53%, Pérez Molina 47%

November 03, 2007
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom has increased his chances to win tomorrow’s presidential run-off in Guatemala, according to a poll by Vox Latina published in Prensa Libre. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the left-leaning National Union of Hope (UNE) in this weekend’s ballot, while 47 per cent would back Otto Pérez Molina of the right-leaning Patriot Party (PP).

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom has increased his chances to win tomorrow’s presidential run-off in Guatemala, according to a poll by Vox Latina published in Prensa Libre. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the left-leaning National Union of Hope (UNE) in this weekend’s ballot, while 47 per cent would back Otto Pérez Molina of the right-leaning Patriot Party (PP).

The first round of the presidential election in the Central American country took place on Sept. 9. Final results gave Colom 28.23 per cent of the vote, followed by Pérez Molina with 23.51 per cent. Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off was scheduled for Nov. 4.

Grand National Alliance (GANA) candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

This year’s election has been marked by episodes of political violence. At least 59 people have been killed while campaigning for last month’s presidential and legislative ballot, and this Sunday’s run-off.

Yesterday, as both candidates closed their campaigns, Guatemalan vice-president Eduardo Stein expressed concern over possible violence following Sunday’s election, saying, "What worries us is what comes after the ballot boxes are opened. What will happen if the results are too close and a high number of people contest them? We have to be prepared to keep things in order in case someone wants to disrupt our peace."

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential run-off?
(Decided Voters)

 

Oct. 28

Sept. 25

Álvaro Colom (UNE)

53.0%

45.6%

Otto Pérez Molina (PP)

47.0%

54.4%

Source: Vox Latina / Prensa Libre
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 28, 2007. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.