February 26, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party is holding on to the top spot in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies published in the Toronto Star. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Tories in the next election to the House of Commons, while 31 per cent would back the Liberal party.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party is holding on to the top spot in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies published in the Toronto Star. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Tories in the next election to the House of Commons, while 31 per cent would back the Liberal party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 17 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent. Support for the Tories fell by one point since December, while backing for the Grits increased by three points.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

The Tory government is expected to present the federal budget on Feb. 26. The three main federal opposition parties—the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc—could force an early election if they reject the spending plan in the House of Commons.

On Feb. 22, NDP leader Jack Layton called on all opposition parties to defeat the government, saying, "(Dion) doesn’t want to form a formal alliance because he’s afraid people might say ‘You’re supporting Mr. Harper.’ He’s trying to pretend he’s not, while in fact the Official Opposition is allowing Mr. Harper to effect an agenda that is just so wrong. (...) Whether (the Liberals) sit, whether they walk out, whether they hide behind the curtain, they are effectively becoming part of the Conservative agenda."

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

	Feb. 2008	Dec. 2007	Oct. 2007	Aug. 2007
Conservative	34%	33%	34%	33%
Liberal	31%	28%	29%	29%
New Democratic Party	17%	17%	17%	19%
Bloc Québécois	9%	10%	9%	9%
Green	8%	10%	9%	9%
Other	1%	2%	2%	1%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,082 Canadian adults, conducted on Feb. 15 to Feb. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 3.0 per cent.

Other poll highlights: Approval Ratings - Harper 34%, Dion 17%. Preferred Prime Minister - Harper 34%, Dion 17%, Neither 37%. 22% think the Tories have performed well and deserves a majority in the House of Commons, 26% believe the Tories performed adequately and deserve to stay in office with a minority, 36% believe the Tories have performed poorly and do not deserve to form a government after the next election.

 

Complete Poll (PDF)

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