June 15, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Australia’s governing party fell this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 48.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, down four points in a week.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Australia’s governing party fell this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 48.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, down four points in a week.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 36 per cent—up 4.5 points in a week—followed by the Australian Greens with 8.5 per cent, and Family First with two per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an 18-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

Earlier this month, ALP lawmaker Belinda Neal was accused of both using threatening and abusive language with staff at a nightclub, and kicking an opponent during a soccer game. On Jun. 11, Rudd said he talked to Neal, saying, "I spoke to Belinda Neal today and said to her that there appears to be a pattern of unacceptable behaviour." Neal confirmed that she received a phone call from the prime minister, and declared: "I have agreed that I will attend counselling to deal with how I deal with conflict with other people."

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

	Jun. 8	Jun. 1	May 18
Australian Labor Party	48.5%	52.5%	51.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	36%	31.5%	35%
Australian Greens	8.5%	9%	8.5%
Family First	2%	2%	1%
Others	5%	5%	4%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Jun. 8	Jun. 1	May 18
Australian Labor Party	59%	63.5%	61%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	41%	36.5%	39%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 826 Australian voters, conducted on Jun. 7 and Jun. 8, 2008. No margin of error was provided.