Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

GOP Heavyweights Are Ahead for 2008 Election

December 19, 2006

(ARGM) - Republican John McCain could defeat Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the next United States presidential election, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 48 per cent of respondents would support the Arizona senator, while 40 per cent would vote for the New York senator.

In a contest pitting McCain against Illinois senator Barack Obama, the Republican holds a 19-point advantage. If former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani were the GOP nominee, he would defeat Rodham Clinton by nine points, and Obama by 11 points.

In 2000, McCain won seven Republican presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner. Giuliani garnered national and international attention in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Yesterday, former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich discussed his chances of earning the Republican nomination, saying, "If none of the three, having from now 'til Labour Day, can seal it off, the first real vote is in 2008. And there's plenty of time in the age of television and e-mail, between Labour Day and 2008."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

John McCain (R) 48% - 40% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
John McCain (R) 49% - 30% Barack Obama (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 48% - 39% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 46% - 35% Barack Obama (D)

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 American likely voters, conducted on Dec. 5 and Dec. 6, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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