Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Giuliani Up, McCain Down as 2008 GOP Hopefuls

October 09, 2006

- Rudy Giuliani has become the top 2008 presidential contender for Republican Party supporters in the United States, according to a poll by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion released by WNBC. 23 per cent of respondents would support the former New York City mayor in a primary election.

Current U.S. state secretary Condoleezza Rice is second with 20 per cent, followed by Arizona senator John McCain with 15 per cent, and former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich with seven per cent.

Support is lower for Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Tennessee senator Bill Frist, Virginia senator George Allen, New York governor George Pataki, Kansas senator Sam Brownback and Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo.

Giuliani garnered national and international attention in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and has formed a political action committee called Solutions America. In 2000, McCain won seven Republican presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner.

On Oct. 5, Romney discussed the war on terrorism, saying, "We are fighting a war against people who have as their objective the overthrow of the United States government. Given that kind of threat, we have to adjust our homeland security strategies to confront it."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
(Asked of Republicans and Republican leaning independents)

Sept. 2006

Feb. 2006

Rudy Giuliani

23%

22%

Condoleezza Rice

20%

22%

John McCain

15%

22%

Newt Gingrich

7%

5%

Mitt Romney

4%

4%

Bill Frist

4%

2%

George Allen

2%

2%

George Pataki

2%

2%

Sam Brownback

1%

--

Tom Tancredo

1%

1%

Chuck Hagel

--

1%

Other

n.a.

n.a.

Undecided

21%

17%

Source: Marist College Institute for Public Opinion / WNBC
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,018 registered American voters, including 345 Democrats, 286 Republicans, and 344 independents, conducted from Sept. 18 to Sept. 20, 2006. Margin of error for the subsample of Democrats and Republican leaners is 5 per cent.

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