January 20, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama continues to hold the upper hand against Republican Rudy Giuliani in a potential United States presidential contest, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator, while 41 per cent would back the former New York City mayor.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama continues to hold the upper hand against Republican Rudy Giuliani in a potential United States presidential contest, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator, while 41 per cent would back the former New York City mayor.

Support for Obama in this match-up remained stable since early December, while backing for Giuliani increased by four points. In a separate contest, Giuliani trails New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by three points.

Yesterday in Florida, Giuliani discussed his goals, saying, "We have to keep America on the offensive with the Islamic terrorist enemy that is against us. In order to do that, we have to have a strong military. Peace through strength."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Giuliani v. Obama

	Jan. 15	Jan. 3	Dec. 11
Barack Obama (D)	47%	47%	43%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	41%	37%	43%

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton

	Jan. 15	Dec. 18	Dec. 4
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	45%	44%	46%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	42%	45%	43%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted on Jan. 14 and Jan. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.