Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Giulani Down, McCain Up in 2008 Republican Race

November 06, 2006

- Rudy Giuliani is holding on to the top position as the prospective GOP United States presidential nominee, according to a poll by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 29 per cent of respondents would vote for the former New York City mayor in a 2008 primary, down two points in a month.

Arizona senator John McCain is second with 27 per cent, followed by former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich with 12 per cent. Support is lower for Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Tennessee senator Bill Frist, New York governor George Pataki, Virginia senator George Allen, and Kansas senator Sam Brownback.

Giuliani garnered national and international attention in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In 2000, McCain won seven Republican presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner.

On Nov. 3, Giuliani campaigned in support of Republican candidates in Pennsylvania, saying, "After Sept. 11, there's no excuse for not adequately seeing the threat. That's what's at stake. If people like (Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bob Casey) are elected, they are going to push very, very hard to go back on the defence against terrorists. Make no mistake about it. That's what their political party says."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2008.

Oct. 2006

Sept. 2006

Rudy Giuliani

29%

31%

John McCain

27%

20%

Newt Gingrich

12%

12%

Mitt Romney

7%

5%

Bill Frist

6%

5%

George Pataki

5%

4%

George Allen

2%

7%

Sam Brownback

1%

1%

No opinion

13%

14%

Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 401 Republican American adults, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 29, 2006. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

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