Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Gingrich Would Lose in 2008 U.S. Election

December 13, 2006

- Former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich would be defeated by four Democratic presidential hopefuls in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for former U.S. vice-president Al Gore, while 36 per cent would support the Republican politician from Georgia.

In a contest pitting Gingrich against New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat holds a nine-point advantage. The Republican trails Illinois senator Barack Obama by 10 points, and Massachusetts senator John Kerry by nine points.

Gingrich represented Georgia's 6th district in the lower house from 1979 to 1999, serving as speaker from 1995 to 1999. He was the co-author of the 1994 "Contract with America", a policy document released before the mid-term election to outline specific Republican Party policies and proposals. The Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives in that election, with 230 seats.

On Nov. 29, Gingrich called the War on Terror a "serious, long-term war" which is why "we should propose a Geneva Convention for fighting terrorism, which makes very clear that those who would fight outside the rules of law, those who would use weapons of mass destruction, and those who would target civilians are, in fact, subject to a totally different set of rules that allow us to protect civilization by defeating barbarism before it gains so much strength that it is truly horrendous."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Newt Gingrich (R) 36% - 52% Al Gore (D)
Newt Gingrich (R) 41% - 50% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Newt Gingrich (R) 38% - 48% Barack Obama (D)
Newt Gingrich (R) 38% - 47% John Kerry (D)

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Nov. 28 and Nov. 29, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent. Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Dec. 2 and Dec. 3, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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