Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Germany’s Christian Democrats Set for Victory

June 05, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The Christian-Democratic Union (CSU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) continue to dominate federal politics in Germany, according to a poll by Infratest-Dimap. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the coalition in the next election.

The governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) of chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is second with 28 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with nine per cent, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with seven per cent, and the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) with four per cent.

On May 22, the Christian Democrats won the election in North Rhine-Westphalia with 44.8 per cent of the vote. The Social Democrats had been involved in the government of Germany's most populous state since 1966. While the next parliamentary ballot was tentatively scheduled for September 2006, Schroeder has openly suggested holding an early federal election. A confidence vote is expected before the end of the legislative period on Jul. 1.

On May 30, the CDU officially named current leader Angela Merkel as its chancellor candidate. For the past six months, voting intention polls have consistently suggested that the Christian Democrats and the FDP could elect enough lawmakers to the 603-seat Federal Diet to form the next administration.

Schroeder's government has been affected by Germany's highest jobless ratio since the 1930s. The country's unemployment rate was 11.8 per cent in March, meaning 4.8 million adults are looking for work.

There is growing speculation that the federal election could be scheduled for Sept. 18. Last week, Merkel vowed to focus on job creation, saying, "Work needs growth and growth needs freedom. We need to understand that people's opportunities in life depend on freedom and competition. Then we will create more solidarity and justice in our country."

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next federal election?

 

Jun. 1

May 24

May 23

Christian-Democratic Union
Bavarian Christian-Social (CDU-CSU)

48%

47%

46%

Social Democratic Party (SPD)

28%

29%

30%

Green Party (Grune)

9%

8%

7%

Free Democratic Party (FDP)

7%

6%

7%

Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)

4%

5%

5%

Source: Infratest-Dimap
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,000 German voters, conducted from May 30 to Jun. 1, 2005. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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