Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Florida (R): McCain 33.4%, Romney 32.1%,

January 29, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain holds a slight edge in Florida, according to a review of the last seven publicly released voting intention surveys. 33.4 per cent of decided voters in the Sunshine State would back the Arizona senator in today’s presidential primary.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is second with 32.1 per cent, followed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 16.6 per cent, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 13.6 per cent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul with 4.3 per cent.

In 2004, the Republican Florida primary was cancelled, after incumbent George W. Bush was nominated by the state’s party.

The Republican presidential primary in Florida is scheduled for Jan. 29.

This ARGM Poll of Polls takes into account the choices of decided voters. It has been used in the past to assess the outcome of elections in the United States and South Korea.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - Florida Republican Primary

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Rudy Giuliani (RG), Mike Huckabee (MH), John McCain (JM), Ron Paul (RP), Mitt Romney (MR).

 

RG

MH

JM

RP

MR

ARGM Poll of Polls

16.6%

13.6%

33.4%

4.3%

32.1%

(16) Rasmussen Reports 16% 11% 31% 4% 31%
(15) SurveyUSA 16% 13% 31% 5% 32%
(14) Insider Advantage 16% 13% 28% 4% 27%
(13) Zogby International 14% 11% 33% 2% 30%
(12) Suffolk University 13% 11% 30% 4% 27%
(11) Strategic Vision 17% 15% 27% 5% 26%
(10) Quinnipiac University 14% 13% 32% 3% 31%

(9) Zogby International

13%

14%

30%

3%

30%

(8) Rasmussen Reports

18%

12%

27%

2%

33%

(7) Insider Advantage

16%

15%

24%

7%

26%

(6) SurveyUSA

18%

14%

30%

6%

28%

(5) Insider Advantage

18%

16%

23%

4%

22%

(4) Rasmussen Reports

20%

15%

23%

4%

27%

(3) Mason-Dixon

18%

15%

26%

3%

30%

(2) Strategic Vision

22%

18%

25%

5%

20%

(1) SPT / MH / BN9

15%

15%

25%

3%

23%

Methodology and Sources:

(16) Rasmussen Reports (578 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 27, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(15) SurveyUSA (608 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 27, 2008, 4.1 MofE)
(14) Insider Advantage (789 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 27, 2008, 3.5 MofE)
(13) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (818 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 25-27, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(12) Suffolk University (400 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 25-27, 2008, 4.9 MofE)
(11) Strategic Vision (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 25-27, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(10) Quinnipiac University (585 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 24-27, 2008, 4.1 MofE)
(9) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN (814 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 24-26, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(8) Rasmussen Reports (500 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 26, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(7) Insider Advantage (692 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 25, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(6) SurveyUSA (550 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 23-24, 2008, 4.3 MofE)
(5) Insider Advantage (501 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 23, 2008, 4.5 MofE)
(4) Rasmussen Reports (675 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 23, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(3) Mason-Dixon (400 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 22-23, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(2) Strategic Vision (606 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 20-22, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(1) St. Petersburg Times / Miami Herald / Bay News 9 (400 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 20-22, 2008, 5.4 MofE)

 

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