Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Florida 2008: Obama 48.6%, McCain 47.2%

November 04, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is barely ahead of Republican John McCain in the Sunshine State, according to a review of the latest five voting intention polls. 48.6 per cent of voters in Florida would support the Illinois senator in today’s United States presidential election, while 47.2 per cent would back the Arizona senator.

Obama is ahead in four of the surveys, while McCain leads in one.

In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Florida’s 27 electoral votes, with 52 per cent of all cast ballots. In 2000, weeks of recounts and court injunctions concluded in a 537-vote victory for Bush over Democrat Al Gore. Since 1972, the only Democrats to win the Sunshine State in a presidential election are Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1996.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Florida - 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)

 

McCain (R)

Obama (D)

Other / Not sure

Date

ARGM Poll Average 47.2% 48.6% 4.2%  
(69) Rasmussen Reports 50% 49% 1% Nov. 2
(68) Strategic Vision 47% 49% 4% Oct. 31-Nov. 2
(67) Public Policy Polling 48% 50% 2% Oct. 31-Nov. 2
(66) Zogby International 46% 48% 6% Oct. 30-Nov. 2
(65) Quinnipiac University 45% 47% 8% Oct. 27-Nov. 2
(64) American Research Group 46% 50% 4% Oct. 29-31
(63) Mason-Dixon 47% 49% 4% Oct.. 29-30
(62) Opinion Research Corp. 47% 51% 2% Oct. 23-28
(61) Bloomberg / LA Times 43% 50% 7% Oct. 25-27
(60) FD / National Journal 44% 48% 8% Oct. 23-27
(59) Rasmussen Reports 47% 51% 2% Oct. 26
(58) Suffolk Univ. 44% 49% 7% Oct. 26
(57) Zogby International / Reuters 47% 47% 6% Oct. 23-26
(56) GfK Roper 43% 45% 12% Oct. 22-26
(55) Quinnipiac University 45% 47% 8% Oct. 22-26
(54) Insider Advantage 47% 48% 5% Oct. 22
(53) Strategic Vision 48% 46% 6% Oct. 20-22
(52) St. Petersburg Times 42% 49% 9% Oct. 20-22
(51) Mason-Dixon 46% 45% 9% Oct. 20-21
(50) Rasmussen Reports 49% 48% 3% Oct. 19
(49) Quinnipiac University 44% 49% 7% Oct. 16-21
(48) Public Policy Polling 47% 48% 5% Oct. 16-19
(47) SurveyUSA 49% 47% 4% Oct. 16
(46) Research 2000 45% 49% 6% Oct. 13-15
(45) Opinion Research Corp. 46% 51% 3% Oct. 11-14
(44) Insider Advantage 44% 48% 8% Oct. 13
(43) Rasmussen Reports 46% 51% 4% Oct. 12
(42) Rasmussen Reports 47% 50% 3% Oct. 8
(41) Research 2000 44% 49% 7% Oct. 6-8
(40) Strategic Vision 44% 52% 4% Oct. 6-8
(39) Mason-Dixon 46% 48% 6% Oct. 4-6
(38) Rasmussen Reports 45% 52% 3% Oct. 5
(37) FL Chamber of Commerce 45% 42% 13% Sept. 30-Oct. 1
(36) Opinion Research Corp. 47% 51% 2% Sept. 28-30
(35) Insider Advantage 46% 49% 5% Sept. 30
(34) Suffolk Univ. 42% 46% 12% Sept. 27-30
(33) Quinnipiac University 43% 51% 6% Sept. 27-29
(32) Public Policy Polling 46% 49% 5% Sept. 27-28
(31) Rasmussen Reports 47% 47% 6% Sept. 28
(30) SurveyUSA 48% 47% 5% Sept. 27-28
(29) Rasmussen Reports 48% 47% 5% Sept. 24
(28) Strategic Vision 48% 45% 7% Sept. 21-23
(27) Rasmussen Reports 51% 46% 3% Sept. 21
(26) Mason-Dixon 44% 47% 9% Sept. 16-18
(25) Research 2000 46% 45% 9% Sept. 15-18
(24) SurveyUSA 51% 45% 4% Sept. 16-17
(23) Opinion Research Corp. 48% 48% 4% Sept. 14-16
(22) FD / National Journal 44% 44% 12% Sept. 11-15
(21) Rasmussen Reports 49% 44% 7% Sept. 14
(20) Zogby Interactive 52% 42% 6% Sept. 9-12
(19) Insider Advantage 50% 42% 8% Sept. 5-9
(18) Quinnipiac University 50% 43% 7% Sept. 5-9
(17) Rasmussen Reports 48% 48% 4% Sept. 7
(16) Public Policy Polling 50% 45% 5% Sept. 6-7
(15) Mason-Dixon 44% 45% 11% Aug. 25-26
(14) Strategic Vision 49% 42% 9% Aug. 22-24
(13) Quinnipiac University 47% 43% 10% Aug. 17-24
(12) The Kitchens Group 42% 39% 19% Aug. 18-21
(11) Rasmussen Reports 48% 46% 6% Aug. 18
(10) Insider Advantage 48% 44% 8% Aug. 11
(9) SurveyUSA 50% 44% 6% Aug. 1-3
(8) Public Policy Polling 47% 44% 9% Jul. 30-Aug. 2
(7) Quinnipiac University 44% 46% 10% Jul. 23-29
(6) Rasmussen Reports 45% 46% 9% Jul. 22
(5) Strategic Vision 49% 41% 10% Jun. 27-29
(4) Public Policy Polling 44% 46% 10%  Jun. 26-29
(3) Rasmussen Reports 48% 41% 11% Jun. 26

(2) Rasmussen Reports

47%

39%

14%

Jun. 18

(1) Quinnipiac University

43%

47%

10%

Jun. 9-16

(69) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely Florida voters, conducted on Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(68) Strategic Vision - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(67) Public Policy Polling - Telephone interviews with 1,717 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 2.4 per cent.
(66) Zogby International - Telephone interviews with 603 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(65) Quinnipiac University - Telephone interviews with 1,773 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 27 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(64) American Research Group - Telephone interviews with 600 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 29 to Oct. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(63) Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. - Telephone interviews with 625 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 29 and Oct. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(62) Opinion Research Corporation - Telephone interviews with 747 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(61) Bloomberg / Los Angeles Times - Telephone interviews with 639 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(60) FD / National Journal - Telephone interviews with 402 registered Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 4.9 per cent.
(59) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(58) Suffolk University - Telephone interviews with 600 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(57) Zogby International - Telephone interviews with 603 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.
(56) GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media - Telephone interviews with 600 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(55) Quinnipiac University - Telephone interviews with 1,435 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 2.6 per cent.
(54) Insider Advantage - Telephone interviews with 562 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Oct. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.
(53) Strategic Vision - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 20 to Oct. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(52) St. Petersburg Times - Telephone interviews with 800 registered Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 20 to Oct. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(51) Mason-Dixon Polling & Research - Telephone interviews with 625 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Oct. 20 and Oct. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(50) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Oct. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(49) Quinnipiac University - Telephone interviews with 1,433 likely Florida voters, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 2.6 per cent.
(48) Public Policy Polling - Telephone interviews with 1,158 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.
(47) SurveyUSA - Telephone interviews with 553 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.
(46) Research 2000 - Telephone interviews with 600 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(45) Opinion Research Corporation - Telephone interviews with 765 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(44) Insider Advantage - Telephone interviews with 612 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Oct. 13, 2008. Margin of error is 3.8 per cent.
(43) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 12, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(42) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 700 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 8, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(41) Research 2000 - Telephone interviews with 600 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 6 to Oct. 8, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(40) Strategic Vision - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 6 to Oct. 8,2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(39) Mason-Dixon Polling & Research - Telephone interviews with 325 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Oct. 4 to Oct. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(38) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely Florida voters, conducted on Oct. 5, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(37) Florida Chamber of Commerce - Telephone interviews with 619 registered Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(36) Opinion Research Corporation - Telephone interviews with 770 likely Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 28 to Sept. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(35) Insider Advantage - Telephone interviews with 532 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(34) Suffolk University - Telephone interviews with 600 likely Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 27 to Sept. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(33) Quinnipiac University Polling Institute - Telephone interviews with 836 likely Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 27 to Sept. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.
(32) Public Policy Polling - Telephone interviews with 941 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 27 and Sept. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.
(31) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(30) Survey USA - Telephone interviews with 599 likely voters in Florida conducted on Sept. 27 and Sept. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.
(29) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 700 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(28) Strategic Vision - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(27) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(26) Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. - Telephone interviews with 625 likely Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 16 to Sept. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(25) Research 2000 - Telephone interviews with 600 likely voters in Florida conducted from Sept. 15 to Sept. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(24) SurveyUSA - Telephone interviews with 707 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 16 and Sept. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 3.8 per cent.
(23) Opinion Research Corporation - Telephone interviews with 907 registered Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 14 to Sept. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(22) FD / National Journal - Telephone interviews with 400 registered Florida voters, conducted from Sept. 11 to Sept. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.
(21) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(20) Zogby Interactive - Online interviews with 995 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 9 to Sept. 12, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.
(19) Insider Advantage - Telephone interviews with 511 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Sept. 9 to Sept. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 4.3 per cent.
(18) Quinnipiac University - Telephone interviews with 1,032 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Sept. 5 to Sept. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
(17) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 7, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(16) Public Policy Polling - Telephone interviews with 986 likely Florida voters, conducted on Sept. 6 and Sept. 7, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
(15) Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. - Telephone interviews with 625 likely Florida voters, conducted from Aug. 25 to Aug. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(14) Strategic Vision - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely voters in Florida conducted from Aug. 22 to Aug. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(13) Quinnipiac University - Telephone interviews with 1,069 likely voters in Florida conducted from Aug. 17 to Aug. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(12) The Kitchens Group - Interviews with 605 registered voters in Florida, conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 4.0 per cent.
(11) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 700 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Aug. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(10) Insider Advantage - Telephone interviews with 418 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Aug. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.
(9) SurveyUSA - Telephone interviews with 679 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Aug. 1 to Aug. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.8 per cent.
(8) Public Policy Polling - Telephone interviews with 807 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Jul. 30 to Aug. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(7) Quinnipiac University Polling Institute - Telephone interviews with 1,248 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Jul. 23 to Jul. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
(6) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Jul. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(5) Strategic Vision - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Jun. 27 to Jun. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(4) Public Policy Polling - Telephone interviews with 723 likely voters in Florida, conducted from Jun. 26 to Jun. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3.6 per cent.
(3) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Jun. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(2) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 500 likely voters in Florida, conducted on Jun. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(1) Quinnipiac University - Telephone interviews with 1,453 registered voters in Florida, conducted from Jun. 9 to Jun. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 2.6 per cent.

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