(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Conservative party is holding on to the lead in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 35 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next federal election, while 30 per cent would vote for the opposition Liberal party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 17 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent. Support for the Tories increased by two points since June, while backing for the Grits remained stable.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

On Jul. 24, Dion suggested that Canada could be headed for an early election, saying, "We have seen over the winter and the spring more and more interest for federal politics and more and more appetite for an election so we will see what will happen in the coming months."

On Jul. 31, Harper dared the opposition leader to topple his government, saying, "Mr. Dion must decide to fish or cut bait—either let the current Parliament work and let us go on with our mandate, or the voters themselves will decide."

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,007 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 29 and Jul. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Other poll highlights:

Approval Ratings: Harper 32%, Dion 13%
Preferred Prime Minister: Harper 36%, Dion 14%, Neither 39%
Momentum Score: Harper -21, Dion -19
49% do not want the opposition to force an early election
Harper defeats Dion on seven qualities and characteristics

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