November 10, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - While Britain’s main opposition political organization has maintained its momentum in the country, the governing party has lost support, according to a poll by Ipsos-MORI published in The Observer. 40 per cent of respondents would back the Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, unchanged since late October.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - While Britain’s main opposition political organization has maintained its momentum in the country, the governing party has lost support, according to a poll by Ipsos-MORI published in The Observer. 40 per cent of respondents would back the Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, unchanged since late October.

The ruling Labour party is second with 35 per cent—down six points since late October—followed by the Liberal Democrats with 13 per cent. 12 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties.

In June, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. On Oct. 3, during the party’s annual conference, Cameron talked about his work in reforming the party and bringing it to the centre of the political spectrum. He also challenged Brown to call an early election. On Oct. 6, the prime minister announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In March 2006, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader. On Oct. 15, Campbell tendered his resignation. A leadership ballot of party members will take place in November, and the new Lib-Dem leader will be announced on Dec. 17. Campbell’s possible successors are environment spokesman Chris Huhne and current parliamentarian Nick Clegg.

On Nov. 7, Brown accused Cameron of being superficial and attacking him personally instead of criticizing his government’s actions, saying the Tory leader is "good on jokes, but pretty bad on policy", and adding that his policies were "confused, contradictory and not thought-through. (…) On every major issue, you have failed to face up to the big challenges ahead (...) Unaffordable tax cuts and the threat to stability are too big a risk for this country."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow? Which party are you most inclined to support?

	Nov. 1	Oct. 23	Oct. 10
Conservative	40%	40%	38%
Labour	35%	41%	41%
Liberal Democrats	13%	13%	11%
Other	12%	6%	10%

Source: Ipsos-MORI / The Observer
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 577 absolutely certain British voters, conducted on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1, 2007. No margin of error was provided.