(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for enacting a change in Portugal's pregnancy termination guidelines fell this month, according to a poll by Marktest released by Diario de Noticias and TSF. 54 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of legalizing abortion, down nine points since October.

In Portugal, abortion is only allowed in cases or rape, or those involving serious health concerns to the mother and child. In a 1998 referendum, abortion remained illegal by a margin of two per cent. Only 32 per cent of eligible voters participated in that public vote.

The Socialist Party (PS) won the February 2005 parliamentary ballot in the European nation, garnering 45.3 per cent of the vote and electing 121 lawmakers to the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic. Socialist leader Jose Socrates took over as prime minister in March.

The plebiscite is scheduled for Feb. 11. The actual referendum question reads: "Do you agree that abortions, carried out in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy, with the woman's consent, in a legal medical establishment, should no longer be illegal?"

In October 2006, Socrates said the change in the law seeks to "bring an end to the persecution of women" and "the prevalence of back-alley abortions." The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Social Democratic Centre / Popular Party (CDS/PP) oppose the proposed change, while the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) suggests amending the law through the legislative branch.

The survey considered two scenarios for the implementation of new guidelines. 66 per cent of respondents believe that, if the "Yes" side wins the referendum, abortions should be conducted through the state-administered health care system. In the event of a "No" victory, 77 per cent of respondents think women who have an abortion should not be tried.

On Jan. 28, Socrates called on voters to support the proposed changes, saying, "It is important for citizens to voice their opinion on an issue as relevant as this one. (...) We must end the social stigma that clandestine abortions entail." On that same day, more than 15,000 people marched through the streets of Lisbon to voice support for the "No" side.

Polling Data

How would you vote on the referendum to legalize abortion?

If a majority of voters chooses "Yes", should abortions be conducted through the state-administered health care system?

If a majority of voters chooses "No", should women who have an abortion continue to be tried?

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