Polls & Research

Fatah Would Handily Win New Palestinian Ballot

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for the Fatah movement more than doubles public backing for its opponent party Hamas in the Palestinian territories, according to a poll by the Jerusalem Media & Communication Center. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for Fatah in the next election to the Palestinian Legislative Council, while 18.7 per cent would back Hamas.

Another 12.4 per cent of respondents would vote for another party. Almost one quarter of respondents say that they would not vote.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas recently extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.

Both factions agreed to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2010. In May, Abbas swore in a new government that does not include members of Hamas. Fayyad remained in his post as prime minister.

Fatah and Hamas leaders are currently engaged in reconciliation talks sponsored by the government of Egypt.

On Oct. 23, Abbas issued a decree inviting "The Palestinian people in Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to take part in free and direct presidential and legislative elections on Sunday January 24, 2010."

Polling Data

If elections were to take place during 2010, which of the following party/faction will you vote for?

Fatah	40.0%
Hamas	18.7%
Other parties	12.4%
I won’t vote	23.5%
No answer	5.4%

Source: Jerusalem Media & Communication Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza, conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 11, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.